Back testing the climate models -- wrong "predictions" of the past too !

Climate change 

should be a subject 

that few people

care about.

The climate has 
barely changed
in the past 138 years
since 1880.

With "climate" 
being defined as
the average 
surface temperature
of our planet.

If you've lived 
in the same place

for a long time, 
your own 

observations 
of the weather,

over decades, 
will tell you 

everything 
YOU need to know,

about YOUR 
own climate.

After all, no one actually lives

in the "average climate" !

I've lived in the same home

in Bingham Farms, Michigan,

since 1987. 

Before that we
lived almost exactly

four miles south, 

in Southfield, 
Michigan, 

for seven years

That's a total of

38 years living

in the same area.

We only wish 
we had noticed

global warming
here in Michigan !

This winter has been

cold, especially 

November 2018.

The last two weeks 

of December 2017,

and the first week 

of January 2018, 

were the coldest 

three consecutive

weeks since 

I moved to Michigan,

from New York, 

in 1977.

I trust my own senses 
far more than 
government bureaucrats

telling me what 
the "average 

temperature" 
of our planet is.

Especially because 
a majority of 
our planet's surface 

has no thermometers,

or has missing data, which

government bureaucrats must

wild guess ( "infill" ) before 

they can compile a global 

average temperature !

Their wild guesses ALWAYS

result in more global warming 

than alternate methodologies

used to measure the temperature: 

weather satellites and 

weather balloons !

Of course they ignore
weather satellites and
weather balloons !

But never mind 
the very obvious

pro-global warming 
bias.

The "CO2 is evil cult" 

doesn't care about 

the past climate, 

whether the official 

surface measurements, 

or your own observations 

-- they only care about 

the future climate, 

as if they had any idea 

what the future climate 

will be.

Why is the 
future climate 

so important ?

Because anyone can claim

they "know" the future climate,

and no one can prove them wrong,

without waiting, and observing

the climate, for many decades !

For over 55 years 

the "warmunists"

have been warning 

about a coming climate

change disaster 

-- sometimes it was

a global cooling disaster, 

but mainly warning of

a global warming disaster.

How many decades have to pass

before people realize predictions

of the future climate are always wrong,

because no one knows what causes

climate change?

If scientists knew what causes

climate change, their predictions

would be correct -- in reality climate

predictions are consistently wrong ! 

Their computer 
climate models

make wrong 
predictions of the

future climate.

They also make 
wrong "forecasts"

when back-tested 
using the

past climate !

Here's the full story:

The average temperature

of our planet is claimed

to have increased only

+1 degree C. in the past 

138 years, with an honest 

margin of error of at least

+/- 1 degree C.

So what?

Has climate change been 

accelerating?

No.

In fact, the average temperature

has barely changed since 2003,

according to the most accurate

climate data available, 

from weather satellites.

Weather satellites 

were launched

in 1979, which was 

just a few years after 

the 1975 to 2003

warming period began.

They tell us the 

average temperature

in December 2018 

was only 

+0.25 degrees C.

warmer than 

the 1981 to 2010 

average temperature.

That minor climate change

would not even be noticed, 

if not for hysterical leftists 

bellowing about a coming 

climate disaster

( that never shows up ! ).

Government 

bureaucrats,

'sell' the simple, 

but false, myth, 

that carbon dioxide 

'controls the climate'.

They have science degrees, 

but their 'CO2 is evil cult' 

is based only on

wild guesses about the 

future climate, 

supported by very little

real science.

I have a science degree

 -- a BS degree -- 

but I didn't need 

a BS degree 

to realize that

predictions of 

the future climate 

were "BS", 

starting back in 1997,

about one hour after

I began reading 

climate science,

as a new hobby !

Lab experiments 

do suggest that

CO2 should have 

a mild greenhouse

effect in the 

atmosphere,

and a warmer 

atmosphere

should warm 

the surface

of our planet.

How much warming,

no one knows !

The experiments 

suggest up to 

+1 degree C. 

of global warming, 

from a doubling 

of the CO2 level, 

over the next 

100 to 200 years.

That's a mild 
and harmless 

rate of 
global warming.

At the current CO2

growth rate 

of 2ppm per year, 

assuming CO2 alone 

controlled the 

average temperature,

it would take 200 years 

for the average temperature 

of our planet to rise a mere 

+1 degrees C.

And that's a worst case estimate !

There's no 
scientific proof 

that CO2 
caused any 
of the mild 
global warming 

since 1940.

We've actually had 

significant global warming 

for the past 20,000 years,

with sea level rising 400 feet

from melting glaciers.

That global warming 

was NOT caused by

man made CO2, 

for at least the first

19,850 years, of the 

20,000 years !

The temperature record 

since 1850 shows nothing 

unusual -- the cause(s) of 

global warming since 1850

could have been natural,

unrelated to CO2.

Our planet has had

4.5 billion years of 

natural climate change,

with no evidence 

it stopped in the 

last century !

There's no proof 

man made CO2

suddenly became the 

'climate controller' 

in the last century,

and natural climate

change stopped ! 

But that's exactly what

we are told by the 

CO2 is evil cult !

The "climate business",

is controlled by many

government bureaucrats

with science degrees.

Those "scientists" 

MUST believe 

man made CO2 

controls the climate, 

or they won't be hired !

So they 'believe' what

they are paid to believe.

The government 

bureaucrats

must also believe 

a doubling 

of the CO2 level

will cause 

+3 degrees C.

of global warming.

That +3 degrees C. was a wild

guess, from the 1970s, and

it has never been revised.

It has also never happened !

The average computer 

climate model 

happens to predict

about +3 degrees C. 

of global warming 

per CO2 level doubling.

And even if you 

arbitrarily decided 

to assume ALL

global warming 

was caused

ONLY by CO2,

with no scientific 

proof of that, 

the "+3 degrees C. 

warming rate",  

of the average 

climate model,

is TRIPLE

the actual rate

of warming 

since 1950 !

In real science, 

the climate models 

would be dismissed

as worthless.

But not in 

modern 

"goobermint

climate

science", 

where wrong 

predictions 

don't matter

-- they are

just repeated

year after year,

since the 1970s

... which is 

a symptom 

of junk science !

Climate models 

are "tuned" 

to extrapolate 

the 1975 to 2003 

warming rate 

into the future, 

so they'd 

look great 

if back tested 

for that 1975

to 2003 period.

But models can 

only be verified 

( validated, or invalidated )

using time periods 

OUTSIDE of the period 

they were "tuned" to.

The flat temperature trend 

in the 15 years since 2003

is one such period.

Not one climate model 

predicted the flat trend

that actually happened !

The 1916 to 1945 warming 

is another such period.

Note: 

A multi-climate model average

is used to represent the 

consensus of scientists

who developed models.

The climate models look 

even more ridiculous

when you look 

at them separately,

rather than as 

an average model  !

(1)

Huge differences 

between 

measured 

and modeled 

global average 

surface warming, 

for the past 15 years,

since 2003, tell us 

the CO2 is evil cult 

really has no idea 

about what causes 

global surface 

temperatures

to change !

(2)

Back testing 

climate models 

reflects poor 

"hind-casting" too,

( "predicting"

global warming 

of only ONE THIRD 

of the actual warming 

from 1916 to 1945 ! )

( more details follow )

The computer 

climate models 

make no sense 

when forecasting,

or hind-casting 

-- they make very

wrong "predictions"

in either direction !

For the NASA - GISS 

( Goddard Institute for Space Studies )

Land-Ocean 

Temperature Index (LOTI), 

the 30-year period 

ending with 1945 

has the highest 

30-year warming rate 

before 1950.

LOTI data claim 

surface temperatures

warmed at a rate of

+0.15 degree C. 

per decade

from 1916 to 1945.

Note:

"Global" temperatures

include little data from the

Southern Hemisphere

before World War II, 

so are actually 

not really "global". 

For example, there were

very few measurements 

for Antarctica before the 

early 1950s.

Climate model 

back testing

"predicted" 

global warming 

of only 

+0.05 degrees C. 

per decade,

from 1916 to1945,

which was 

only ONE THIRD 

of the actual 

measured 

warming.

The computer models 

assume man made 

greenhouse gases

control the global

average temperature.

That assumption 

fails to explain the

1916 to 1945 warming

( greenhouse gases

could explain 

up to one-third 

of the total warming ).

Which means 

at least 

two-thirds 

of the warming,

from 1916 to 1945,

had natural causes,

unrelated to 

greenhouse gases.

And if at least 

two-thirds 

of that warming 

period was from 

natural causes,

then why can't 

at least two-thirds 

of the warming, 

from 1975 to 2003, 

also be explained 

by natural causes?

The climate model 

back testing outputs 

used here are those 

stored in the 

Coupled Model

Inter-comparison 

Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) 

archives, used by the 

United Nations’ 

Intergovernmental Panel 

on Climate Change (IPCC), 

for their 5th Assessment 

Report (AR5). 

The always wrong 

climate models'

global average

surface temperature

predictions are 

the primary metric 

of man made 

global warming.

They "predicted"

ONE THIRD the

actual warming

from 1916 to 1945,

when back tested,

and TRIPLE the 

actual warming

since the 1970s !

It's very obvious, 

from their very

wrong predictions,

that climate models,

as a group, 

are junk science !

The "CO2 is evil cult",

falsely claims 

man made CO2 

is very dangerous, 

and bases that claim 

almost entirely 

on junk science !

How can an 

"existential threat"

be based only on 

wrong wild guesses 

of the future climate, 

made by 
bureaucrats playing 
computer games,

that have no ability 

to predict the 

future climate ?

Only leftists 

would fabricate 

a 'climate change

is dangerous' scam,

based almost entirely

on junk science !

They are very emotional,

people, susceptible to

junk science, which is 

designed to stir emotions, 

with scary tales of a 

future climate disaster.

You'd think 

the scaremongering

would stop 'working' 

after over 50 years

of wrong predictions,

not to mention

the long forgotten, 

equally false scares,

about DDT, acid rain,

the hole in 
the ozone layer,

and global cooling.

Please don't be fooled 

by the climate change

scaremongering !

Past climate change

has been all good news,

starting with Chicago and

Detroit under glaciers,

20,000 years ago !

Leftists want you 

to completely ignore

the past climate.

Look only to the future,

they say, as if they knew

the future climate !

Leftists falsely claim 

the future climate 

will be different

-- only bad news

in the future.

Only gullible people 

would continue 

to believe 

the global warming

scaremongering,

after over 50 years 

of wrong predictions !

Especially after the flat

average temperature trend 

from 2003 through 2018,

that no model predicted,

demonstrating that 

actual global warming 

has practically stopped !

Past climate change 

is a fact, studied by

real climate scientists.

That's real science !

The future climate 

is unknown,

yet many liars

get attention,

government grants,

and government jobs,

by claiming they know 

the future climate.

That's junk science !