Null Hypothesis Not Falsified ???

A hypothesis is a proposed explanation made with limited evidence, as a starting point for further investigation.

The Null Hypothesis says it must be assumed a system has not experienced a change unless there is evidence of a change.

The Null Hypothesis is a fundamental scientific principle.

It is the basic principle of scientific experimental procedure where one input to a system is altered (independent variable).

If the system is not observed to respond to that alteration, then it has to be assumed the alteration had no effect.



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Global average temperature over the past 150 years has fluctuated by roughly 1.0 degree C. 

Climate proxy studies estimate global temperature has fluctuated by 10 or more degrees C. in the past -- sometimes by 5 degrees C. within a decade or two -- long before there were any industrial CO2 emissions.

In science English, that means the Null Hypothesis has not been falsified. 

And that means there's no evidence 4.5 billion years of natural climate variations suddenly stopped in 1975,  greenhouse gases took over as the "climate controller", and CO2 caused unprecedented global warming since then.


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Manmade global warming is not really a true hypothesis because there's enough contradictory evidence to show it's really just speculation:

(1) There is a rough CO2 / AGT (average global temperature) correlation. 

(2) But atmospheric CO2 lags temperature by 5 to 10 months in the modern data record. 

(3) And atmospheric CO2 lags temperature by about 500 to 1,000 years in the ice core proxy record. 

The three points above mean the hypothesis that rising CO2 levels cause global warming most likely CONFUSES CAUSE AND EFFECT, according to climate history.

Much evidence shows that average ocean temperatures drive atmospheric CO2 levels.

No evidence shows atmospheric CO2 levels drive average surface temperature. 



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Global average surface temperature:
(1) declined from about 1940 to 1975, 
(2) increased from about 1975 to 2000, and 
(3) stayed flat since 2000, 
all happening while atmospheric CO2 levels increased every year.
 
That means the correlation of temperature and CO2 has been negative, positive, and near zero, in just a 75-year period.
 
Basic physics suggest that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, but evidence indicates the greenhouse effect at current CO2 levels is insignificant, and may be too small to measure.

Even the UNs IPCC claims the greenhouse effect of CO2 is primarily from the first 40 ppmv in the air, and the greenhouse effect drops rapidly as levels increase. 

We are currently at 400 ppmv. CO2 in the air.



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Atmospheric CO2 today at 400 ppmv is not high.

It is actually dangerously low for the survival of terrestrial carbon-based life, if we get another glaciation peak like we had just 20,000 years ago.

Plants evolved with about 2,000 ppmv CO2 in the airt -- five times the current 400 ppmv CO2 level.

An atmospheric CO2 level below 150ppm would kill most plants on this planet.




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Evidence that CO2 Changes 
Lag Temperature Changes:


Coherence established between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature 
(Nature, Volume 343, Number 6260, pp. 709-714, February 1990) 
– Cynthia Kuo et al.
“Temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide are significantly correlated over the past thirty years. Changes in carbon dioxide content lag those in temperature by five months.”


Ice core records of atmospheric CO2 around the last three glacial terminations 
(Science, Volume 283, Number 5408, pp. 1712-1714, March 1999) 
– Hubertus Fischer et al.
“High-resolution records from Antarctic ice cores show that carbon dioxide concentrations increased by 80 to 100 parts per million by volume 600 ± 400 years after the warming of the last three deglaciations.”


Atmospheric CO2 Concentration from 60 to 20 kyr BP from the Taylor Dome ice core, Antarctica
 (Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 27, Number 5, March 2000)

– Andreas Indermuhle et al.
“The lag was calculated for which the correlation coefficient of the CO2 record and the corresponding temperatures values reached a maximum. The simulation yields a lag of (1200 ± 700) yr.”


Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations over the Last Glacial Termination

(Science, Volume 291. Number 5501, January 2001)

– Eric Monnin et al.
“The start of the CO2 increase thus lagged the start of the [temperature] increase by 800 ± 600 years.”


The phase relations among atmospheric CO2 content, temperature and global ice volume over the past 420 ka (Quaternary Science Reviews, Volume 20, Issue 4, pp. 583-589, February 2001) 
– Manfred Mudelsee
“Over the full 420 ka of the Vostok record, CO2 variations lag behind atmospheric temperature changes in the Southern Hemisphere by 1.3±1.0 ka”


Timing of Atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic Temperature Changes Across Termination III 
(Science, Volume 299, Number 5613, March 2003) 
– Nicolas Caillon et al.
“The sequence of events during Termination III suggests that the CO2 increase lagged Antarctic deglacial warming by 800 ± 200 years and preceded the Northern Hemisphere deglaciation.”


Southern Hemisphere and Deep-Sea Warming Led Deglacial Atmospheric CO2 Rise and Tropical Warming

(Science, Volume 318, Issue 5849, September 2007)

– Lowell Stott et al.
“Deep sea temperatures warmed by ~2C between 19 and 17 ka B.P. (thousand years before present), leading the rise in atmospheric CO2 and tropical surface ocean warming by ~1000 years.”


Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration Across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition 
(Science, Volume 324, Number 5934, pp. 1551-1554, June 2009) 
– Bärbel Hönisch et al.
“The lack of a gradual decrease in interglacial PCO2 does not support the suggestion that a long-term drawdown of atmospheric CO2 was the main cause of the climate transition”


The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature
(Global and Planetary Change, Volume 100, pp. 51–69, January 2013)  
– Ole Humlum et al.
“There exist a clear phase relationship between changes of atmospheric CO2 and the different global temperature records, whether representing sea surface temperature, surface air temperature, or lower troposphere temperature, with changes in the amount of atmospheric CO2 always lagging behind corresponding changes in temperature.”