Total Pageviews

Tuesday, October 11, 2016

Climate Models are Worthless Computer Games

The "CO2 is Evil" claim consists of this unproven theory:

(1) increased CO2 in the air leads to higher surface temperatures,

(2) higher surface temperatures lead to more evaporation,

(3) more evaporation leads to higher humidity,

(4) higher humidity leads to even higher temperatures,

(5) higher temperatures gradually warm the oceans, causing them to release some of their dissolved CO2 into the air, and

repeat (1) through (5) again and again  =  runaway warming!


Two major problems with the runaway warming theory:

(1) Earth has had more CO2 in the air than today during most of its 4.5 billion life, with no runaway warming
(if there had been runaway warming, we would not be here today to argue about climate change!), and

( 2) When atmospheric humidity
(water vapor) increases, lots of clouds (made of water vapor) form, then it rains and water vapor in the air declines ... and then the same evaporation / cloud formation / rain cycle starts over again, keeping the temperature and humidity moderate in the long run!
 
Super computer climate models
(GCMs or Global Climate Models) are tuned to reproduce the warming of the 1970s to1990s, which is assumed (a wild guess) to be entirely due to increasing carbon dioxide (the basic climate physics model).

The basic climate physics model calculates warming due to extra CO2 as if it were the same as extra sunlight -- but it is not the same.
   
The basic climate physics model seemed to work when the world was warming from 1975 to 1998s, but that apparent correlation was only a coincidence -- the climate physics model failed miserably after 1998 when CO2 increased but the average temperature trend remained flat.

There is no empirical evidence that rising CO2 levels will warm Earth’s surface as fast as the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts ... or even enough to be measurable.

IPCC predictions are entirely based on wild guess computer models.

There are serious errors in the basic climate physics model that is the foundation for the computer models.

Carbon dioxide is a  greenhouse gas, so must cause some global warming.

But not much warming.   


None of the following are included in mainstream climate models:


- The Sun is a nuclear fusion reactor weighing 300,000 times more than Earth -- it actually has 99.8% of the mass of the solar system.

- The Sun surrounds us with changing magnetic and electric fields while it rains down charged particles.

- Some years the Sun throws ten times as much extreme-UV our way as it does in other years.

- A constant solar wind of charged particles blows at a million miles an hour — the flow waves, wiggles, and shifts direction.

- The solar magnetic field reaches to the edge of the solar system, and turns itself completely upside down every 11 years.

- Reconnecting magnetic field lines cause explosions in space.

- During the magnetic cycle the sun changes color, from more ultra violet to more infra red, and each type of light has different effects on Earth.

- Cosmic rays appear to seed clouds.

- The path of cosmic rays through our atmosphere is affected by the solar magnetic field.

- The Sun may have a dual core — two dynamos operating in the north and south, on cycles that are not quite in sync.

None of the above factors are included in the worthless mainstream climate models, worthless because they have made wrong predictions for the past 40 years.