a·nom·a·ly
əˈnäməlē
noun
Something that deviates
Something that deviates
from what is standard,
normal, or expected.
The "global warmunists" are always
talking about the average temperature
of our planet, but they never tell anyone
what the actual average temperature is !
They consistently fail to mention
the global average is made up of averages
of many small surface areas of the planet
called "grids".
They consistently fail to mention
a majority of grids have no weather stations
with thermometers -- possibly closer
to 75%, than to 50% -- but no percentages
of grids without real temperature data are ever
revealed to the public, at least not where
I could find the data.
So what does a government bureaucrat do
when a surface grid has no thermometer ?
Answer: Mr. or Ms. Government Bureaucrat
makes up an average temperature number
for every data-empty grid, and rather than
being honest by saying they wild guessed
a number, they call it "infilling".
a number, they call it "infilling".
Then they compare the average of the grids,
( with over 50% infilling ), to a baseline period,
usually a thirty year period, and only report
the temperature change
versus the baseline period,
or temperature anomaly.
The main reason anomalies are used
is that when they are shown on a chart,
they make tiny average temperature changes
is that when they are shown on a chart,
they make tiny average temperature changes
look huge, and that misleading visual display
better supports the leftist fairy tale
of abnormal global warming.
of abnormal global warming.
An anomaly chart can have a temperature
(vertical) range of only one degree C.,
making a tiny +0.2 degree C. change
look like a mountain on the chart,
when +0.2 degrees C. is really "noise"
well within an honest margin of error
of +/- 1 degree C.
Absolute temperatures on a chart,
as I show on the home page of this
Honest Global Warming Chart blog,
make people SEE just how little
the average temperature
has changed since 1880.
And the average temperature
of our planet is FAR from accurate
scientific data:
(1)
At least 1/3 of the warming since 1880,
possibly up to half, was 'caused by'
"adjustments" to raw temperature data
made by government bureaucrats.
Once you adjust raw data, you no longer
have real data -- you have a government
bureaucrat's opinion of what the data
should have been, if measured correctly
in the first place.
(2)
1800s thermometers tended to read low,
which means the warming since then
has been exaggerated.
(3)
In the 1800s, there were very few
Southern Hemisphere measurements,
and few ocean measurements for the
Northern Hemisphere, outside of the
shipping lanes ... where sailors were
told to throw a wood bucket ( later
changed to a canvas bucket ) overboard
to get water, and measure the temperature
with a thermometer, hopefully before
taking a cigarette break !
(4)
For the surface average temperature today,
there's still more than 50% wild guess infilling
-- and the rest of the temperature numbers are
government bureaucrat "adjusted" raw data.
The word "anomaly" strongly suggests
a change from some prior “normal” period,
although no one on this planet has any idea
a change from some prior “normal” period,
although no one on this planet has any idea
what a “normal” climate is.
In my opinion, the margin of error
for surface temperature compilations
for surface temperature compilations
is at least +/- 1 degree C.
and anyone who believes
and anyone who believes
the claimed margin of error
of +/- 0.1 degrees
of +/- 0.1 degrees
-- claimed even though
most measurement instruments
are rated +/- 1 degree C.,
is a gullible fool.
The home page of this blog features an
actual annual average temperature chart
actual annual average temperature chart
from 1880 to 2016, which is created
from the anomalies, by adding the
absolute (actual) average temperature
of the anomaly baseline period
to each annual anomaly.
( see Note 1 for details about that chart )
The actual annual temperature changes
are shown on a chart that resembles
136 vertical glass thermometers in a row,
with each "thermometer" showing
with each "thermometer" showing
the average temperature for one year.
The average temperatures are shown
in Fahrenheit degrees to make the changes
from year to year more visible, because
using Centigrade degrees would have made
my home page chart look even more
like a straight line.
The absolute temperature chart that
I chose for the home page of this blog
makes leftists go berserk, which tells me
it’s a very good chart to help people see
that actual warming since 1880 was mild,
( ignoring the low data quality for now ).
The message people get from looking at
jagged temperature anomaly charts,
where tenths of a degree C. changes
of the average temperature
( changes that no human would ever feel outdoors )
look HUGE and DANGEROUS on the chart,
and create the illusion that something
BIG and ABNORMAL is happening right now
with the average temperature.
That is a deliberate deception.
"Abnormal" is when Chicago and Detroit
were covered with ice at least a mile thick,
about 20,000 years ago.
This was an abnormally cold winter
in the US mid-west where I live,
especially in December and April***,
but my home was not buried under ice !
It was still near freezing this morning
where I live -- five miles north of Detroit,
but finally today's weather report
claims not one morning in the next
seven days will be below freezing
and that means Spring is finally here !
Richard Greene
Bingham Farms, Michigan
April 22, 2018
Below are two anomaly charts
that cover a temperature range
of only 0.9 degrees C.:
The left chart shows natural warming
in blue,
The right chart shows
what is claimed to be man made
warming after 1940 in red
-- which curiously looks almost the same
as natural warming,
but never mind that, because
the leftists declare all warming
after 1940 is man made,
and guess what --
THEY ARE NOT TAKING ANY QUESTIONS !
Below are two anomaly charts
that cover a temperature range
of only 0.9 degrees C.:
The left chart shows natural warming
in blue,
The right chart shows
what is claimed to be man made
warming after 1940 in red
-- which curiously looks almost the same
as natural warming,
but never mind that, because
the leftists declare all warming
after 1940 is man made,
and guess what --
THEY ARE NOT TAKING ANY QUESTIONS !
The first half of April 2018
was the third coldest
in 110 years for US:
Note 1:
Details about
the blog home page
temperature chart:
the blog home page
temperature chart:
The "Honest Chart" was created
by simply adding the 1951-1980
baseline temperature declared by
NOAA - GISS (57.2 degrees F.)
back to the anomaly temperatures,
to recover the absolute temperature,
which is then plotted on the chart.
NOAA - GISS ( US Commerce Dept. )
provided the methodology:
"Q. What do I do if I need
absolute Surface Average
Temperatures, not anomalies?
A. In 99.9% of the cases
you’ll find that anomalies
are exactly what you need,
not absolute temperatures.
In the remaining cases,
you have to pick one of the
available climatologies
and add the anomalies
(with respect to the
proper base period)
to it.
For the global mean,
the most trusted models
produce a value of roughly
14°C, i.e. 57.2°F, but it may
easily be anywhere between
56 and 58°F and regionally,
let alone locally, the situation
is even worse."
"Close to a century ago,
the International
Meteorological Organization
—now known as the
World Metrological Organization
instructed member nations
to calculate Climate Normals
using 30-year periods,
beginning with 1901–1930.
Also, a general rule in statistics says
that you need at least 30 numbers
to get a reliable estimate
of their mean or average.
So, our scientists have
traditionally defined Normals
as averages over 30 years
simply because that is
the accepted convention
—not because a 30-year average
is the only logical or “right” way
to define a Climate Normal."
Climate Normal
= 30-year Average
Temperature Anomaly
= Deviation from 30-year Average
Baseline period:
GISTEMP surface Jan 1951 – Dec 1980 (30 years)
other temperature data compilers:
HADCRUT4 surface Jan 1961 – Dec 1990 (30 years)
RSS satellite Jan 1979 – Dec 1998 (20 years)
UAH satellit Jan 1981 – Dec 2010 (30 years)