We are told the average temperature
of the surface of our planet
has warmed +1 degree C.
since 1880.
For a planet whose temperature is always
changing, +1 degree C. in 138 years
seems like a random, harmless variation
to me.
Normally, I could not care less
about + 1 degree of warming
since 1880 ...
... until leftists decided
to use that trend
to gain political power:
They extrapolated one-half degree of warming
from 1975 to 2000 up to one hundred years
into the future.
Then they claimed a climate catastrophe
was in progress, unless people did everything
they said, without question, to prevent
the (invisible) "climate crisis"
Predictions of a coming catastrophe are almost
never true ... but scary predictions are a centuries-old
strategy used by religious and political leaders to create
fear, which allows them to control people.
I refuse to fear predictions --
especially those made by
power-hungry politicians
who actually have no idea
what the future will bring.
Real science requires:
- Observations,
- Hypotheses,
- Data collection,
- Experiments,
- Correct predictions, and
- Replication of experiment results
by "competitors".
Let's consider the data collection today:
It's possible there was no warming
at all since 1880, or +2 degrees C.,
rather than +1 degree C.
That 2 degree range is possible because
haphazard temperature measurements
must have a margin of error range
of at least +/- 1 degree C.,
for several reasons:
- Very few Southern Hemisphere data
before 1900,
- Few Southern Hemisphere data
from 1900 to 1940,
- A majority of our planet's surface never had,
and still does not have, any thermometer data
( with no thermometers, the temperatures
for those unmeasured areas must be wild guesses
that can't be verified, and can't be falsified ! )
Government bureaucrats claim a laughable margin
of error of +/- 0.1 degree C., in spite of the fact that
individual land measurement instruments
are usually rated for an accuracy of +/- 1 degree C.
How can bureaucrats claim +/- 0.1 degree C.?
Simple -- by lying to us:
Bureaucrats claim
the margin of error
must be very small
because there are
thousands of measurements
for the planet's surface.
But that's a fake science claim:
Accuracy can only increase
if there are many measurements
of the same thing.
For the surface temperatures,
most of the 5 degree latitude
by 5 degree longitude "grids"
have no measurements at all,
... and the rest of the grids
have only ONE measurement
per weather station !
The NASA-GISS and NOAA claimed
claimed margin of error
is ridiculously small
(junk science).
(junk science).
That false precision is bad enough,
but both US organizations
then completely ignore
THEIR OWN
THEIR OWN
claimed +/- 0.1 degree C.
margins of error --
They announce
one year was warmer
than the prior year by
a few hundredths
of a degree C. !
Ocean surface temperatures
are difficult to measure using
any of the following methodologies:
any of the following methodologies:
- Wood buckets / thermometers, in shipping lanes,
- Canvas buckets / thermometers, in shipping lanes.
- Engine cooling water intake temperature, in shipping lanes, and
- Buoys
There is no reason to believe
all four methodologies are equal.
There is no way to verify
if sailors were careful with buckets
trying to get water near the surface,
and then did they measure promptly,
or smoke a cigarette first ?
The depth of ship engine
cooling water intakes
cooling water intakes
varies greatly among ships
-- and they are certainly not
-- and they are certainly not
pulling in water from the surface
of the oceans.
of the oceans.
In addition to changing methodologies
for sea surface temperature measurements
( oceans are 71% of our planet ),
we've had many changes
for land surface measurements too.
Humans live on about 1.5% of our planet.
Land weather stations are mainly in
industrialized nations, near where people live.
Stations that were once sited in rural areas,
may now be in slightly warmer suburban
areas, or in much warmer urban areas,
after many decades of economic growth.
Urban areas are much warmer
than surrounding rural areas,
and that "warming" is called the
Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect.
Land weather stations are not all
at exactly the same height off the ground.
Some are now located near buildings,
parking lots and runways --
and those poorly sited stations
and those poorly sited stations
show considerably more warming
than the weather stations
that have remained in rural areas.
Land surface measurement instruments
are NOT checked every year (or ever)
to verify that they are accurate,
after the initial installation.
to verify that they are accurate,
after the initial installation.
Ordinary thermometers
were often not calibrated
against a standard thermometer
prior to installation.
Weather (temperature) station site changes
are very common, along with economic growth
in the vicinity of the weather station boxes
that were not moved.
A "Stevenson" weather screen
(a large, outdoor whitewashed,
louvered wood box, on stilts)
around a thermometer,
was often replaced
by a much smaller,
ventilated, plastic box
in the 1990s.
The older, large boxes were 230 liters.
The new, small boxes are 60 liters -- 1/4 the size!
Small boxes heat faster than larger boxes.
Plastic boxes heat faster than wood boxes.
Small, plastic boxes respond to
temperature changes quicker
than large, wood boxes.
Most old fashioned thermometers
were graduated to the nearest degree,
so the margin of error must be at least
+/- 0.5 degrees C.
Electronic automatic weather station (AWS)
used in the small boxes were often installed
in the 1990s.
Not only do the new, small boxes heat faster than
the old, big boxes, but the electronic instruments
in the small boxes can capture the temperature
every minute, or even every second.
Measuring the temperature much more frequently
during a day dramatically increases the chance of
catching the actual momentary peak or trough temperature for that day.