SUMMARY:
The alleged coming
climate change "crisis"
is built on a house of cards,
not real science !
not real science !
There are assumptions
on top of assumptions,
which is not even close
to being real science:
-- Assume worst case CO2 warming, and
-- Assume a water vapor positive feedback
that triples the effect of CO2,
even though there is
no positive feedback "amplifier"
visible in any temperature data !
Government bureaucrats
with science degrees
want permanent job security:
Permanent job security
requires a "crisis"
for them to study,
and here's how they
claim a "crisis" is coming:
(1)
Assume worst case CO2 warming
(assume 100% of warming since 1950
was caused by CO2, double the IPCC's
unproven claim of "over 50%"), and
(2)
Assume a strong positive feedback
from water vapor that triples
the worst case warming estimate
from CO2 alone.
This adds up to unsettling science.
DETAILS:
Carbon dioxide alone
is a minor greenhouse gas.
If it causes any global warming
(which is an assumption),
then it would be harmless warming.
If I assume CO2 caused
100% of the warming since 1950,
with no proof that happened,
that would mean a doubling of CO2
would increase the average temperature
by a harmless +1 degree C.,
and that +1 degree C. warming
would take 133 years
at a 3% CO2 growth rate,
or 200 years
at a 2% CO2 growth rate).
More CO2 would slow the natural cooling
at night, mainly in cooler, drier climates
whose residents would welcome warmer nights!
CO2 would not cause hotter days
in the humid tropics!
Water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas.
When there is lots of water vapor (humidity)
in the air, CO2 has little effect.
If adding man-made CO2 to the air
caused the amount of water vapor
in the air to increase, then this
“positive feedback” should cause
the average temperature
to rise more than from CO2 alone.
The IPCC claims the
water vapor WILL increase,
as a result of CO2 warming,
and more water vapor will TRIPLE
the worst case warming from CO2 alone
(+3 degrees C., vs. +1 degree C.,
for a doubling of CO2 in the air)
Climate models use that
+3 degree C. assumption,
and for the past 30 years
they have predicted
roughly triple the warming
that actually happened !
That's evidence a positive feedback
from water vapor does NOT exist.
No one actually knows
how much water vapor feedback happens
(or even if it is a positive or negative feedback)
in response to adding man made CO2 to the air.
But uncertainty doesn't stop
the global warmunists
from assuming the existence of
a huge positive water vapor feedback
that triples the worst case warming
from CO2 alone.
Common sense:
If Earth is warming,
more evaporation is expected,
so humidity should be higher.
But, on the other hand,
warmer temperatures
should cause more clouds,
which block sunlight during the day,
causing cooler days !
The global climate models
say CO2 warming will INCREASE
upper troposphere specific humidity.
Unfortunately, there are large differences
in the various measurements / estimates
of water vapor in the atmosphere.
Weather balloon data shows a DECLINE
of humidity in the upper troposphere
(but there are also contradictory satellite data,
so there is great uncertainty about the data!)
Great uncertainty, unfortunately,
does not stop the global warmunists
from jumping to their scary (fictional)
conclusions about a future climate
catastrophe on our planet !
They want you to believe their climate
fairy tales, and do everything they say
without question.
This climate blog presents one question
after another, about the wild guess
computer game predictions of the climate,
that have been so wrong, for so long
(wrong for the past 30 years).