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Monday, July 9, 2018

Global warming mainly at night - why?

There has been significantly more 
night-time global warming, 
compared with 
day-time global warming 
since 1975.

We have had "diurnal asymmetry".

Note: 
The only significant warming 
after the early 2000s, 
so far, has been from 
the 2015 - 2016 El Nino (ENSO) 
heat release, which is 
unrelated to man made CO2. 

As an example of daytime 

vs. nighttime warming,
below are charts 
of US average temperatures
for the month of June (1895 to 2018)
where the maximum temperatures,
in the first chart,
show no particular trend,
but June minimum temperatures,
in the second chart,
show significant warming 
since 1980:

















Efforts to understand 
this night warming effect 
has focused on 
many variables, 
such as cloud cover, 
precipitation and 
soil moisture content.

The correct explanation,
like a majority of 
climate change science,
may be unknown.

The theory that makes
the most sense to me:

I believe boundary-layer depth
is a better explanation 
for why night-time temperatures 
should be significantly more sensitive 
to greenhouse gas warming 
than day-time temperatures.

The layer of air 
just above the ground 
is known as the boundary-layer. 

At night this layer is very thin, 
just a few hundred meters.

During the day it grows 
up to a few kilometers. 



In fact, night warming 
significantly greater than 
day warming is a 
greenhouse gas "signature".

It is also a primary reason 
for ASSUMING that CO2 
is responsible for 
the global warming since 1975, 
rather than natural climate change, 
(that had been the cause 
of all climate change 
for 4.5 billion years.)

(Another reason to ASSUME 
that CO2 is responsible 
for global warming since 1975, 
is the significant warming 
of the Arctic region. ... 
But that expected 
greenhouse gas "signature" 
in the Arctic is contradicted 
by the LACK of warming 
in Antarctica since 1975, 
except for some minor local warming 
near underseas volcanoes.)


The build-up of carbon dioxide 
in the atmosphere 
from human emissions 
should reduce the amount 
of infrared radiation 
released into space as Earth cools.

This should affect (increase) 
both the night-time low 
and day-time high temperatures. 

During the day 
sunlight keeps warming 
(half) the planet until late afternoon.

CO2 is invisible to sunlight. 

Then (half) the planet 
starts cooling 
until the morning sunrise.


At night there is 
a much smaller volume 
of boundary layer air 
for CO2 to affect 
... so there should be 
a much larger effect 
on the night time low temperature 
than on the daytime high temperature, 
as measured by surface (land) 
weather stations.

In fact, the number of 
extremely cold nights 
has dropped by half 
during the past fifty years.

In addition to warming 
measured mainly at night, 
the higher average temperatures
in the US since 1975, 
have also been mainly 
in the winter and spring.

In addition, the hottest decade 
in the US was the 1930s, 
based on day-time 
high temperature records 
of the individual states.

I use the US as my example 
because we have 
the biggest network 
of weather stations. 


Simulating higher temperatures 
at night is one of many problems
with climate models.

Predicting fast warming in Antarctica, 
that never happened, 
is another climate model problem.

Grossly over predicting 
global warming, 
by two to three-fold, 
is an even bigger 
climate model problem.


Climate models 
have a lot of problems!