I've been reading
about climate change
every week since 1997.
My first impression in 1997
was that the "coming crisis"
was just a prediction of the future --
and predictions are something
that humans are not good at.
My view of climate change in 2018
has changed from 1997
because the facts and data
have changed:
One thing that has not changed:
The "coming crisis" is still
just a prediction of the future --
and predictions are something
that humans are not good at.
There were two major changes,
from 1997 to 2018,
based on data:
(1)
The average temperature
stopped rising
from the early 2000s
through mid-2015,
which when combined
with the global cooling
we had from 1940 to 1975,
makes it much more likely
that CO2 does NOT
"control" the climate, and
(2)
Satellite data show,
the 'greening' of our planet,
so my current conclusion
is that adding CO2 to the air,
(when done without causing
local pollution, as in China)
has been beneficial
for our planet.
Here's a simple summary of my
2018 data-based analysis of the
climate change "crisis"
( and please remember that
climate computer models
are not data) :
(1)
Claim:
CO2 is a greenhouse gas
My Analysis:
A fact, based on simple
laboratory experiments.
(2)
Claim:
More greenhouse gas in the air
should cause warming.
My analysis:
A reasonable assumption,
but the amount of warming
is unknown -- it could range
from a best case
of too small to measure,
to a worst case of
+1 degree C. per doubling of CO2
( the worst case CO2 warming
is estimated by assuming
100% of the warming since 1975
was caused only by CO2,
and even the UN's IPCC
doesn't make that 100% claim! )
(3)
Claim:
CO2 should cause
+3 degrees C. warming
per doubling of the CO2
level in the air.
My Analysis:
An unreasonable assumption,
used by the IPCC, and also the average
warming assumed by climate models,
except for one Russian model.
Of course we can't trust the
Russian model, because it must be
in collusion with Donald Trump !
(heh heh)
See +1 degree worst case
CO2 assumption above, in (2).
As evidence that +3 degrees
per doubling of CO2
is much too high,
the climate models
have been predicting
almost triple the warming
that has actually happened !
That's strong evidence
to refute the +3 degrees C.
scaremongering (nonsense).
(4)
Claim:
CO2 is the primary 'climate controller'.
My Analysis:
A weak assumption:
Pro
-- Strong Arctic warming
-- Warming mainly at night
Con
-- No Antarctica warming
-- Global cooling from 1940 to 1975
-- No global warming from 2003 to mid-2015
-- Most of our planet has no thermometers,
so government bureaucrats guess most
of the local temperatures ("infilling")
that are used to compile
the global average temperature.
Real scientists would never
draw any conclusions
from such weak temperature data,
with so much infilling.
But the infilled temperature data
are treated with great respect
by government bureaucrat
"scientists" ... when they
are not busy "adjusting"
the data, again and again,
which usually results in
more "global warming".
In summary:
The "coming climate change
crisis" is an imagined crisis,
that for 30 years has existed
in over-active imaginations,
based mainly on ASSumptions,
and almost no real science.
There is no evidence
the 1975 to 2000 warming period
of our average temperature
(which I call "the era of man made CO2"),
was man made CO2 warming
... while the similar warming period
from 1910 to 1940, had natural causes
unrelated to fossil fuel use !
But that's what we are told !
In fact, global warming
has been in progress
for 20,000 years,
causing sea level
to rise 400 feet,
with at least 399 of the 400 feet
due to natural climate change,
and less than one foot
of the 400 foot sea level rise
could be blamed
on man made CO2 !
Environmentalists have morphed
from people caring about harmful
air, water and land pollution in the 1970s,
to falsely attacking harmless CO2,
the staff of life, since the late 1980s,
while IGNORING the real air, water
and land pollution in China, India,
and other parts of Asia !