The 1979 "Charney Report":
“Carbon Dioxide and Climate:
A Scientific Assessment,”
was headed by Jule Charney.
The Charney Report "finding"
became the basic assumption
for the UN Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC),
the US Global Change Research
Program (USGCRP), and many
US government actions,
including the EPA’s
illogical "finding"
that carbon dioxide,
the staff of life on this planet,
endangers human health
and welfare !
The Charney Report
presents no hard evidence
that carbon dioxide (CO2)
could cause more than
the modest, harmless warming,
which has been demonstrated
in laboratory, closed system
experiments, since the 1920s.
The Charney Report
relies on speculations
by five climate
modeling groups,
using their extremes
for the upper bounds
and lower bounds
in its "finding"
( their guess of the
warming effect of CO2 ).
Climate modelers
speculated
( wild guessed
that an increase
in atmospheric
water vapor
would amplify
( triple )
any increase
in temperature
from CO2 alone
( also a guess ! ).
The estimated increase
in surface temperatures,
including the alleged
water vapor
positive feedback,
was +3 degrees C.
+/- 50%.
The low end came from
the Princeton modelers
and the high end from
Jim Hansen’s NASA-GISS.
There were no data,
because no one could calculate
temperatures in the troposphere,
where the greenhouse effect occurs.
Climate modelers
speculated
( wild guessed
that an increase
in atmospheric
water vapor
would amplify
( triple )
any increase
in temperature
from CO2 alone
( also a guess ! ).
The estimated increase
in surface temperatures,
including the alleged
water vapor
positive feedback,
was +3 degrees C.
+/- 50%.
The low end came from
the Princeton modelers
and the high end from
Jim Hansen’s NASA-GISS.
There were no data,
because no one could calculate
temperatures in the troposphere,
where the greenhouse effect occurs.
Participants demonstrated
tremendous self-confidence,
a strong sense of consensus,
an unusual uniformity of views
on open questions,
disregard for experts
who were not part of the group, and
a disregard for the possibility
the "finding" might be wrong.
Most important is the failure
to test the "finding" against
reality.
97% of computer climate
model simulation results
appear linked to the
Charney Report guess
that a doubling of CO2
would increase
the average temperature
by +3 degrees C.
+/- 1.5 degrees C.
But if you consider
all the warming
since 1950,
and attribute
100% of the warming
only to CO2 (
the IPCC only claims "over 50% ),
then that actual
"worst case warming"
would be equivalent to
only +1 degree C. warming
per a doubling of the CO2 level,
not +3 degrees C.
Has the IPCC, or any
government bureaucracy,
rejected or revised
the Charney Report "finding".
No.
Not even a tenth of a degree
revision since 1979.
The Charney Report
was an educated guess
made in 1979.
There is much evidence
since 1979 that
it was a wrong guess.
The IPCC and government
climate modelers
( computer gamers )
continue to use
the Charney guesses,
But amplified warming
from increased
water vapor
is not happening.
Computer games
greatly overestimate
actual atmospheric
warming.
If there is any surface warming
from CO2, then it is modest.
The current claim is that
the atmosphere
is warming the surface
at a greater rate than
the atmosphere is warming !
That's nonsense, not science !
The IPCC and government
climate modelers
( computer gamers )
continue to use
the Charney guesses,
But amplified warming
from increased
water vapor
is not happening.
Computer games
greatly overestimate
actual atmospheric
warming.
If there is any surface warming
from CO2, then it is modest.
The current claim is that
the atmosphere
is warming the surface
at a greater rate than
the atmosphere is warming !
That's nonsense, not science !
Meanwhile,
US government-funded
US government-funded
climate change "science",
costing over $40 billion so far,
according to government reports,
just ignores strong evidence
contradicting the "finding"
of the 1979 Charney Report.