The Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change
The IPCC was created in 1988
by the United Nations,
by the United Nations,
under the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO), and the
United Nations Environmental
Programme (UNEP), to address
future man made climate change.
The IPCC has been wrong
about climate change
for thirty years, making
three unproven claims:
(1)
The first false claim
is that humans caused
"over 50%" of the warming
since 1950 -- with no scientific
proof that any of the warming
was caused by humans,
Reason to doubt that claim:
The warming period
from 1910 to 1940,
claimed to have
unknown natural causes,
was almost identical
to the warming period
from 1975 to 2000,
which is claimed
to have been
"over 50%"
man made,
(treated as 100%
man made, by the media)
with no explanation
ever given for why
the two similar
warming periods
in the same century,
would have very
different causes.
(2)
The second false claim was
created out of thin air
to make the first false claim
seem more "believable":
Claiming wild guess (1) has
a "95% confidence" level,
means nothing:
(just that 19 of 20
climate activists and
scientists, who supported
the IPCC, were
very confident
very confident
about themselves,
which makes the "95%"
totally meaningless,
not real math,
or real science),
and
(3)
The third false claim
is a doubling of of CO2
in the atmosphere
will cause global warming
of +3 degrees C.,
based on the 1979
Charney Report.
The actual
global warming rate
since 1950,
(assuming the
worst possible case,
that CO2 caused
100% of the warming
since 1950, not just
"over 50%")
was +1.0 degrees C.
of global warming
per CO2 doubling
-- that worst case
warming rate estimate
warming rate estimate
is not even close
to the +3.0 degrees C.
warming per CO2 doubling
claimed by the IPCC
claimed by the IPCC
since 1988 !
The reports of the IPCC
support the United Nations
Framework Convention
on Climate Change
(UNFCCC).
(UNFCCC).
The objective
of the UNFCCC
is “stabilization
of greenhouse gas
concentrations
in the atmosphere
at a level that would
prevent dangerous
anthropogenic
(man made)
interference with
the climate system.”
The US became part of
the UNFCCC in 1992.
The IPCC wild guesses
“anthropogenic
(man made)
interference with
the climate system,”
by using complex
mathematical models,
prepared by others.
Climate computer models
do not describe what is
actually occurring
in the atmosphere,
with changing levels
of greenhouse gases.
Publicly archived
climate model runs
from 20 modeling groups
participating in the Coupled
Model Inter-comparison
Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)
of the IPCC, as a group,
greatly over predicted
the actual warming trend
in the atmosphere.
When specifically tested
against the actual warming
of a specific layer
of the tropical troposphere,
at about
30,000 to 40,000 feet
30,000 to 40,000 feet
(9,100 to 12,200 meters),
the climate models
greatly over-predicted
the actual warming.
compared with three
different datasets
from weather balloons.
over the past 60 years.
The climate models'
overestimates
of warming
were typically for
triple the warming
that actually happened.
This seems to be be
a systematic error
in every model,
except one
Russian model.
The IPCC's
first chairman,
Swedish
meteorologist
Bert Bolin,
writing a chapter in the
Encyclopedia of
Life Support Systems
after he left the IPCC,
stated:
“The realization that
human activities
might change
the global climate
was not new.
Already at the end
of the nineteenth century
Svante Arrhenius,
professor of chemistry
at Stockholm’s Hรถgskola
(University),
deduced that the global
mean temperature
might increase by
+5° C. to +6°C.
if the carbon dioxide
concentration
in the atmosphere
were doubled.”
His claim is a lie.
In his 1895 paper,
Arrhenius did guess that:
“...temperature
of the Arctic regions
would rise about +8 degrees
or +9 degrees Celsius,
if the carbonic acid [CO2]
increased 2.5 to 3 times
its present value."
But in his later 1906 paper,
Arrhenius revised
his estimates, writing:
“In a similar way,
I calculate
that a reduction
in the amount
of CO2 by half,
or a gain
to twice
the amount,
would cause
a temperature change
of -1.5 degrees C,
or +1.6 degrees C,
respectively.”
Bolin died in 2007,
so we will never know
if he deliberately
misrepresented
Arrhenius,
a fellow Swede.
The difference between
what Arrhenius first wrote,
and later wrote, was huge.
The concept of
the planet cooling
by outgoing
infrared radiation
was not
fully developed
at the time.
Arrhenius's calculations
on the absorption
and re-radiation effects
of greenhouse gases
as a group,
and individually,
in the atmosphere,
were speculation.
Bolin worked
with Jules Charney,
the head of the group
that produced the
1979 Charney Report.
The Charney Report
falsely claimed that
the modest effect
of carbon dioxide
would be tripled,
by a huge
positive feedback
from the primary
greenhouse gas,
water vapor.
The Charney Report
was pure speculation
-- there were no
comprehensive
measurements
of atmospheric
temperature trends,
at the time.
The 1979
Charney Report
estimated the equilibrium
global surface warming
from a doubling of CO2
to be ''near +3° C.
with a probable
margin of error
of ± l.5° C."
There have been
no IPCC revisions,
to that wrong
Charney estimate,
since 1979.
The primary method
for validating
a climate model
is to compare
their predictions
with actual
temperature
changes.
Another test
of climate theory
would be the
empirical
examination
of other planets.
Observing the
surface temperatures
of Mars, Earth,
and Venus
would confirm
the existence,
nature, and magnitude
of the greenhouse effect.
The IPCC
and its followers
have not performed
rigorous testing
required for
model validation.
If there's any
water vapor
positive feedback
amplification
of the alleged
mild effect of CO2,
then it is very small.
There is no
empirical
justification
for the statement,
made since 1979,
that a
doubling of CO2
would cause
about +3° C.
of global warming,
with a probable
margin of error
of ± l.5° C."
Modern atmospheric
temperature trends
include the total effect
of all greenhouse gases,
including CO2
and water vapor.
The warming
of the atmosphere
since 1950,
even if blamed entirely
on CO2 (with no proof
any of the warming
was caused by CO2)
has been minor -
- a rate of warming
that would increase
the average temperature
of our planet
by only +1 degrees C.,
from 15 degrees C.,
to 16 degrees C.,
in 300 years!
There is
no evidence
of any
“dangerous
anthropogenic
(man made)
interference
with the
climate system.”
The IPCC and its followers,
such as the US Global Change
Research Program (USGCRP),
rely on 19th century thinking,
and 19th century measurement
techniques.
The claim
that anyone
can predict
the future climate
is a hoax.
The use of climate
scaremongering,
led by leftist politicians
and government bureaucrats
with science degrees,
created the alternative
energy industry.
The alternative
energy industry
depends on large
government subsidies,
so it is a scam,
by swindling the
American taxpayers,
and making some people
very rich, for producing
intermittent, inconsistent
amounts of energy,
at great expense !
Climate change is natural,
always happening,
long before humans
were here --
huge climate changes
of 15 to 20 degrees C.
... but suddenly there is
a mild +1 C. degree warming
from 1880 to 2018,
+/- 1 degree C.
and that small change
just has to be man made
climate change, because some
government bureaucrats say so ?
Climate change is natural,
always happening,
long before humans
were here --
huge climate changes
of 15 to 20 degrees C.
... but suddenly there is
a mild +1 C. degree warming
from 1880 to 2018,
+/- 1 degree C.
and that small change
just has to be man made
climate change, because some
government bureaucrats say so ?
