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Tuesday, November 27, 2018

How to build a climate consensus that is wrong

We are told that 97% 
of climate scientists 
agree with their own 
scientific consensus. 

This is based on 
extremely biased
surveys.

The surveys usually ask
for agreement that 
humans affect the climate.

Even I believe humans 
have some effect 
on the climate, 
( although no one knows
what that effect is ),
so a 97% agreement 
on that point,
doesn't mean much.

The surveys 
don't consider
all scientists.

The surveys 
don't consider
all scientists 
knowledgable 
about the climate

The surveys look 
only at scientists 
who actively publish
on climate change  
in scientific journals. 

But what determines 
“actively publishing?”

The selection process 
creates a strong bias 
in favor of scientists
who believe CO2 is evil.



Those who are 
eventually published,
probably started out 
as children raised 
in "climate-conscious"
families.

CO2 is evil is taught 
to them in school,
and CO2 is evil projects
will be rewarded.
by their teachers.

Such children are 
much more likely 
to consider 
environmental science 
as their college major. 

Their college 
science professors 
will certainly be under
great pressure to teach
the CO2 is evil belief.

Those who don't agree
with their professors’ views 
will be much less successful 
getting into a PhD program. 

Then, success 
within a PhD program 
means pleasing one's 
dissertation committee’s
CO2 is evil beliefs.

To succeed 
in academia, 
a newly minted PhD 
must apply for grants
—mostly from 
government agencies, 
or his own university. 

Grant applications will need 
the approval of committees, 
populated with scientists 
who make their living
from government-funded 
studies of climate change. 



The selection process 
of the climate scientist 
who gets published,
starts in elementary school, 
then high school, college,
grant funding, manuscript 
preparation, and finally,
publication.

It would be nearly impossible
for a climate change skeptic
to pass through 
all those "checkpoints".



Research studies 
are improperly designed 
to affirm the consensus 
CO2 is evil belief,
rather than to examine
the truth of a hypothesis.

There is a lot of pressure
to arbitrarily remove data
from a dataset that would 
affect the ability to get 
a publishable p value of 
“less than 0.05” 
( an arbitrary 
cut off 
in statistics 
that is needed 
for publication ).

If the research project 
fails to prove 
his hypothesis, 
the young scientist 
won't write a paper
( unlikely to be published ),
so will not be seen as
"actively publishing".

If there are 
multiple hypotheses 
in a research project, 
and only one of is proven, 
it will be the only one 
written up, and submitted 
for publication.



A climate change paper
that fails to support 
the CO2 is evil belief
will be much harder 
to get published. 

Such “negative papers” 
are commonly rejected 
by the editor 
before going 
to peer review.

If a 'negative paper"
does get to peer review, 
the reviewers will be 
very critical, and likely 
to reject the paper,
so it would probably
never be published.



These are the reasons 
97% of the published
climate literature 
is forced to slant one way
among "actively published"
climate scientists.



Scientists invited to the IPCC 
(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 
are the most fully vetted 
climate scientists of all. 

Consensus at the IPCC level
is demanded.



The mainstream media 
publishes only  
the most dramatic 
climate change claims.

Positive news 
from increasing 
atmospheric CO2, 
such as accelerated 
plant growth,
which is 
supported by 
thousands of 
scientific studies,
gets no attention.



The politicized 
climate field 
is far from 
real science.

Climate change
is a secular religion.

Skeptics have to work hard
to identify anti-CO2 biases,
and show that 
wrong wild guesses
of the future climate,
have nothing to do
with real science.



Policy makers, 
teachers, 
journalists, and 
environmentalists
know nothing about 
the future climate,
other than what they 
are told by 
government
bureaucrats 
with science degrees.

But those bureaucrats
have made the same
wrong climate predictions 
for 30 years in a row,
based on a wild guess 
of the effect of CO2,
first published in 1979,
that causes predictions
of global warming 
to be triple
the actual warming
since 1950.