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Friday, November 23, 2018

It's Long Past Time to Eliminate Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards

The EPA and 
the US National 
Highway Traffic 
Safety Administration 
           (NHTSA) 
requested comments 
on freezing changes 
to two regulations 
originally based on
faulty science 
and wrong predictions.

Those two regulations 
are the Corporate 
Average Fuel Economy 
               (CAFE), 
and tailpipe CO2 
emissions standards.

They affect cars 
and light trucks,
at levels proposed 
for model year 2020. 

The "freeze" 
would cover 
model years
2021 through 2026. 

The Carter Administration 
gave us CAFE standards, 
at a time when many people 
falsely thought the world 
was going to run out of oil,
the US would run out 
of natural gas, 
and greenhouse 
gases, especially CO2, 
was causing dangerous 
global warming.

The foundation of 
CAFE standards
was a house of cards:

(1)
The world is not 
running out of oil.


(2)
The US is not 
running out 
of natural gas, and


(3)
And if CO2 causes any global 
warming, it is such mild,
harmless warming, that:

CO2 levels rose from 1940 to 1975,
but the average temperature declined.

That has been blamed on aerosol
pollution, blocking sunlight.

Apparently, those aerosols 
fell out of the atmosphere in 1975,
because there was warming 
from 1975 to 2003 !

That 1975 to 2003 warming was 
almost identical to the warming 
from 1910 to 1940, that no one 
blamed on CO2.

And that means the 1975 to 2003
warming could have had 
natural causes, rather than 
being caused by CO2.

Since 2003, the only warming 
was from a Pacific Ocean 
heat release in late 2015 and 
early 2016 -- a cyclical local event, 
which has nothing to do with CO2, 
and is commonly called an "El Nino".

In summary, there is 
no scientific proof 
that CO2 caused 
any warming after 1940,
and no logical reason to claim 
the 1975 to 2003 warming 
had a completely different cause
than the very similar 
1910 to 1940 warming period,
in the same century. 


The evidence for (1), (2) and (3)
contradict the computer models,
and other predictions, 
that "supported" those fears.



Modern automobiles 
emit little except 
water vapor and 
carbon dioxide, 
two gases that are
essential for life 



Hydraulic fracturing and 
directional drilling open up
oil and gas resources 
long thought to be 
impossible to extract. 

There is no danger 
of ‘running out’ of 
oil and gas.



Water vapor in the atmosphere 
varies from 0.01% (polar regions), 
to 4% (tropical regions), 
of total atmospheric gases.


Carbon dioxide is about 0.04%. 

Carbon dioxide quickly loses 
its effectiveness 
as a greenhouse gas.

The effect is logarithmic.
as CO2 levels increase.

Even at pre-industrial levels 
(about 0.028% of the atmosphere), 
the effect of increasing CO2 
on temperatures was already tiny.



The US government 
ignores water vapor 
and over emphasizes 
carbon dioxide. 



The 1979 Charney Report 
speculated that 
modest global warming 
from carbon dioxide,
in laboratory experiments 
would be tripled 
by water vapor
 increasing in the air.

But we now have 
almost 40 years 
of atmospheric data 
showing that the 
rising temperatures
are very mild, and 
water vapor amplification 
is not happening.


The US global 
climate models
have been 
contradicted 
by reality.

There has been 
no significant rise 
in atmospheric 
temperatures 
since the 1998 
EL Nino heat peak.

That heat peak was 
almost the same 
average temperature 
that we had in late 2015 
and early 2016, at the 
similar heat peak 
of the next large El Nino.



There is no logical reason 
to "tighten" CAFE standards.

There was no logical reason 
for CAFE standards
in the first place.


Because the 
so-called "science"
behind CAFE standards,
was speculation, 
and it was wrong.