Surface warming
is supposedly
amplified by
sea ice-related,
and snow-related,
positive feedbacks
near the poles.
That's what
climate "models"
say.
And there HAS been
significant warming
in the Arctic.
So, does that
Arctic warming
'prove' that the
climate "models"
are right?
No, because
the "models" are
completely wrong
about Antarctica,
so their apparent
"right prediction"
about the Arctic,
must have been
just a coincidence.
Climate "models"
can't “know”
what drives
climate changes
in the Arctic region,
because they
failed to predict
climate changes
in the Antarctic region.
Modelers claim
their random luck
in the Arctic
as a “success”,
while being
completely silent
about their failures
in Antarctica.
Climate
"models"
are wrong,
according to
a study by
Mike Jonas, titled:
"Southern Oceans
Sea Surface
Temperatures
contradict
a key element
of the IPCC Report"
The sea surface
temperatures
of the
Southern Oceans
actually had cooling,
in latitudes where
amplified warming
was expected
to occur.
This conclusion
was based on
a study of 36
Southern
Hemisphere
summers from
1982 to 2017.
Much of the
man made
global warming
predicted by
climate "models",
occurs near the poles,
and is believed to be
greatly amplified
by a predicted,
( but never measured ),
positive feedback.
The sea-ice latitudes
in this study
cover a large area
in the Southern Ocean.
Temperatures there
failed to behave
as projected by
climate "models",
invalidating
the "models".
The climate system
is a complex coupled
non-linear system --
it is impossible to create
a model of a system
that's far from being
completely understood.
The ocean latitudes
examined in
this study
are from -30 (30S)
southwards ,
and are referred to as
the “Southern Oceans”,
to avoid confusion
with the official
Southern Ocean,
which lies south of
latitude -60 (60S).
The fifth
IPCC Report
states:
“Feedbacks
associated
with changes
in sea ice
and snow
amplify
surface warming
near the poles."
My Translation:
As ice melts,
solar radiation
that was
once reflected
back into space
due to the
high reflectivity
( albedo )
of the ice,
will be warming
an increasing amount
of ice-free blue water,
which absorbs
more solar energy
than ice-covered water,
amplifying
global warming
from CO2 alone.
Note:
That feedback
mechanism
would also work
for ice or snow
melting, and exposing
brown land to sunlight.
Sea ice feedback
would happen
only in the summer,
when some of the
sea ice melts.
Antarctic sea ice extent
is mostly between
about 76S (Ross Sea)
and 56S (Weddell Sea).
In the
'Southern Oceans’
sea-ice latitudes,
where any
amplified warming
from sea-ice feedback
must originate,
the opposite
is shown by the
sea surface
temperature data
Reynolds, R.W. et al (2002).
An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate.
Journal of Climate, 15, 1609-1625.
Data accessed in Nov 2017.
From around
latitude -70 to -55,
there is cooling,
not amplified warming.
The amplified warming
from sea ice feedback,
as projected by
computer "models",
and reported
by the IPCC
with 'high confidence',
is not happening.
The data used
for this study
was limited
to latitudes with
complete data
for a reasonable
distribution
of longitudes.
Latitudes
south of -72 (72S),
and longitudes
with some land,
were excluded
because they
did not have enough
complete data.
The tip of the West
Antarctic Peninsula
has land which cuts out
most of the lines
of longitude
in that sector,
so it is not
well represented.
It's possible that bias
could have been introduced
in this study by restricting
the sea surface analysis
to longitudes
with complete data.
The hypothesis
that surface warming
is amplified
near the poles
by sea ice feedback,
is contradicted
by the data.
Data clearly show
little or no warming
is occurring
in higher latitudes
approaching Antarctica,
and that over most
of those latitudes,
there is net cooling.
A large area of the
'Southern Oceans'
has been behaving
differently
from "model"
projections,
for a
significant period
of time.
Note:
Climate "model"
predictions
for surface (land)
air temperature
warming of
Antarctica
have been
far from reality too
-- predictions were
2.5x to 5x higher
than actual
temperature
changes !
The minor warming
in Antarctica has been
local warming -- mainly
melting of glacier edges
near known underwater,
heat-producing volcanoes.
That minor
local warming
affects a
small percentage
of Antarctica,
and could not have
been caused by
greenhouse gases,
which would
have warmed
the entire continent.