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Thursday, December 20, 2018

The scientific method vs. modern climate junk science

Modern climate 
"junk science"
consists of:

Self-proclaimed
experts making 
assertions, 

Politicians
making 
assertions, 

Polls,

Positive correlation 
of two variables,
average temperature
and CO2 levels,
from 1975 to 2003.
( completely ignoring 
the negative correlation
from 1940 to 1975, 
and no correlation 
from 2003 through 2018 ! )

Of course a
short-term 
correlation 
is not 
causation.

And finally, 
last but not least,
Computer game
climate models
that have made 
very wrong predictions
for over three decades ! 




For real science,
the scientific method
consists of induction, 
deduction, and 
verification. 

Think of induction 
as a scientific guess,
perhaps an explanation 
of the believed cause 
of a particular event.

The scientist 
next needs 
to deduce 
a way to test
whether his 
educated guess
was correct.

Then the test 
would be 
executed
to see if the 
expected 
result 
happens.




The five stages
of real science are:
(1) observations, 
(2) modeling,  
(3) predictions, 
(4) verification, and 
(5) validation.

“’Verification" 
means seeing if 
the predictions,
based on 
the  model,
really happen.




Reproducibility of
experiment results 
are important too.

Unfortunately,
roughly half of
experiment results
can not be replicated
by other scientists !


Statistical tests 
are also needed
to determine if a
"correct prediction" 
was more likely to be 
just a lucky guess.



The global 
climate models 
used in modern 
climate "science"
have not been 
verified and 
validated. 

Dozens of 
climate models 
significantly
overestimate 
atmospheric 
warming,
by 2x to 3x.

One Russian 
climate model 
seems to make 
good predictions.

But ... when 
only one model,
out of dozens,
seems "right", 
it is very likely 
to be just a 
lucky guess !

The only other 
explanation,
which seems 
very unlikely,
would be that 
Russian scientists 
have a great 
understanding 
of climate 
change physics,
( in reality, no one does )
while all other 
climate scientists,
in all other countries, 
don't understand 
climate change 
physics at all ! 




Modern climate 
"junk" science
ignores the
scientific method, 
so should never be used
for government policies,
... as it is being used !




Modern climate 
"junk" science
would have 
us believe that 
4.5 billion years 
of natural 
climate change,
suddenly ended,
in the middle of 
the 20th century, 
and then 
carbon dioxide (CO2) 
magically took over 
as the most powerful 
"climate controller".

The evidence for this 
hard to believe assertion 
is .... believe it or not ...
" because we say so ! "

Really !




In my 21 years
of climate science 
reading, as a hobby,
summarized here
since 2014,
I have never found 
any scientist
who even tries 
to explain 
how, or why, 
natural 
climate change 
became a minor 
climate variable, 
and CO2 became
a major climate 
variable.

There is certainly 
no evidence found
in the actual 
real-time
( past 150 years ),
and reconstructed
by studying proxies,
temperature data,
( past 800,000 years )_
that CO2 was ever
a "climate controller".

There was 
a warming period
from 1910 to 1940, 
that was natural 
global warming,
followed by
a similar 
warming period,
from 1975 to 2003,
blamed on 
carbon dioxide, 
but 1975 to 2003
could have had 
exactly the same
natural causes 
as the similar
1910 to 1940 
warming period.



Studies of 
Antarctica
and Greenland 
ice cores, 
found that
temperature 
peaks
preceded 
CO2 level 
peaks.

That's exactly the opposite 
of what modern climate
"junk" science claims !

Natural causes 
of global warming 
apparently caused
the oceans to warm 
gradually, and release 
some of their 
dissolved CO2
into the atmosphere,
with a multi-hundred 
year lag ...
just like a cold soda pop
loses carbonation 
when sitting outside 
on a hot day.



But ... what if I'm wrong,
and CO2 is responsible
for all of the global warming
since 1950,
( even though
the UN's IPCC 
only claims
"over 50%",
with no proof 
of that ! )
and the post-1950
rate of warming 
continues 
in the future.


The rate of warming, 
from 1950 to 2018,
if blamed 
100% on CO2,
and extrapolated
into the future,
would lead to 
only +1 degree C.
of global warming 
in the next 200 years !
( with CO2 levels assumed to rise +2ppm per year )

And +1 degree C.
in 200 years,
( or even in 10 years )
would be 
harmless !



The claim 
that adding 
small amounts 
of CO2 
to the air,
every year, 
is dangerous,
is a leftist hoax,
based only on
junk science
-- mainly wrong
wild guesses 
of the future climate, 
using computer games, 
that have been making 
wrong predictions
about the future climate
for the past 30 years !