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Thursday, January 31, 2019

Definition of the tropical "hot spot"

Two primary energy flows 
from Earth's surface 
through the atmosphere 
into space were speculated 
in the influential 
1979 Charney report: 

(1) 
Carbon dioxide (CO2) absorbing 
and re-radiating (interfering with) 
some of the outbound 
long-wave infrared radiation
from the Earth's surface 
to space, as Earth cools off.

This process is simulated 
in infrared spectroscopy 
in laboratories. 

It is assumed that the same 
effect happens in the troposphere, 
and that is a reasonable assumption,
but the quantity of warming is not
known -- the lab experiments,
and actual warming since 1950,
strongly suggest mild, harmless
global warming, and

(2)
Increased water vapor 
absorbing and re-radiating 
(interfering with) even more 
outbound long-wave infrared
radiation. 

According to the 
1979 Charney Report, 
the increased water vapor 
triples the effect of CO2 alone.

A1997 model of Earth’s 
“Annual Global Mean 
Energy Budget” 
presented by the 
Kiehl and Trenberth 
paper published by 
the American 
Meteorological 
Society. 

In their graph, Figure 7, 
one can see the component 
allocated to outgoing 
longwave radiation 
and the component 
allocated to 
increasing water vapor, 
evapotranspiration 
and latent heat. 

According to the UN 
Intergovernmental Panel 
on Climate Change (IPCC), 
there's a water vapor 
component of release 
of latent heat 
in the upper troposphere. 

Energy from the sun 
causes water vapor 
and evapotranspiration 
to rise in the atmosphere, 
which condenses 
into liquid water 
(or ice) in the 
upper troposphere,
giving off heat.
some of which 
is radiated into space, 
cooling our planet.

This is called 
the “hot spot,” 
assumed to be
over the tropics, 
and strongest 
at a pressure between 
300 to 200 millibars (mb) 
( which is roughly 
9 to 11 km up, or 
30,000 to 36,000 feet 
above the tropics ). 

This “hot spot” 
has not been found 
and is not increasing 
as it should if the 
water vapor component 
of “CO2-caused 
global warming” 
is as strong as claimed 
in the Charney Report,
and assumed by the IPCC 
and others for 40 years. 

The recent 2018 
McKitrick and Christy paper 
demonstrated that 60 years 
of weather balloon data 
have shown no such warming 
is taking place. 

Forty years of comprehensive 
atmospheric temperature trends,
measured with weather satellites,
also failed to find any "hot spot".

As a result, the projections /
forecasts / predictions 
( wrong wild guesses, actually! )
from climate models, 
are for triple the warming
that has actually happened.

Without this "hot spot", 
predictions of dangerous 
greenhouse gas warming, 
as described in 
government-supported 
publications, 
is not occurring. 

The warming process 
is not intensifying 
from a water vapor
positive feedback, 
as asserted in the 
1979 Charney Report, 
assumed to be a fact
by the UN's IPCC.
and used by
climate modelers
to predict triple
the global warming, 
that actually happens ! 


No "hot spot" means
global warming
is no worse than 
mild and harmless,
which is exactly what 
CO2 lab experiments, 
and temperature 
measurements, since 1979, 
made from the troposphere,
had suggested all along.



In summary,  
you get to choose 
(A), or (B):

(A) 
An unproven water vapor
positive feedback theory,
with zero evidence, or

(B)
Real science experiments,
done in laboratories, 
somewhat confirmed
by actual temperature 
observations, using 
weather satellites and
weather balloons.

Only a fool would 
believe (A), 
and dismiss (B), 
but that is 
EXACTLY 
what global warmunists do !




REFERENCES:
Earth’s Annual Global 
Mean Energy Budget
By J. T. Kiehl and Kevin E. Trenberth, 
National Center for Atmospheric Research, 
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 
1997 
Figure 7, page 206


Ad Hoc Study Group 
on Carbon Dioxide and Climate
By Jule G. Charney, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 
Chairman, et al. to the: Climate Research Board, 
Assembly of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, 
National Research Council, National Academy of Science, 
1979


A Test of the Tropical 
200‐ to 300‐hPa Warming Rate 
in Climate Models
By Ross McKitrick and John Christy, 
Earth and Space Science, 
AGU 100, July 6, 2018