And CO2
greenhouse warming
can not be the cause !
Araźny et al., 2019
"A comparison of
bioclimatic conditions on
Franz Josef Land (the Arctic)
between the turn of the 19th
to 20th century and present day"
“Air temperature in 1899–1914
during three expeditions
was 1.8–4.6 °C lower than
the modern period in winter
(Oct–Apr).
However, during the 1930/31
expedition it was 4.6 °C warmer
than the years 1981–2010.
Our results relate to what
has been called
the ‘1930s warming’,
referred to by various authors
in the literature as the ETCW
or the ETCAW.”
In individual months, the highest
negative anomalies were identified
in Calm Bay (hereafter CB)
in January 1914 (− 7.4 °C)
and in February 1900 (− 6.8 °C).
In contrast,
during the 1930/31
expedition, it was
4.6 °C warmer
than the present day
in CB [Calm Bay].
Such a high
thermal anomaly
was influenced by
a warm autumn
and winter, especially
February 1931,
when the average
monthly temperature
was 10.7 °C higher than
in the modern period.”
“In approximately
the last 140 years,
there have been
two periods
of significant
temperature
increases
in the Arctic.
The first began in
around 1918–1920
and lasted until 1938
and has been called
the ‘1930s warming’
(Bengtsson et al. 2004).
Other works
have referred to
this period as the
‘Early Twentieth
Century Warming’
(ETCW, Brönnimann 2009)
or the
‘Early Twentieth Century
Arctic Warming’
(ETCAW, Wegmann et al. 2017, 2018).
Our results confirm the observations
for the last expedition from the
historical study period in 1930/1931.
These years covered
the warmest part of the ETCW.
In turn, the second increased warming
of the Arctic began around 1980
(Johannessen et al. 2004),
or according to Przybylak (2007)
in about the mid-1990s.
Changes in overall atmospheric
circulation have long been believed
to have been the cause of the ETCW
(e.g. Scherhag 1937).
As the modern climate warming
(since 1975) has progressed
in a largely similar manner
to the progression of the ETCW
(Wood and Overland 2010;
Semenov and Latif 2012),
there has been renewed interest
in the insufficiently well-explained
causes of the ETCW using
the latest research methods,
including, primarily, climate models.
An analysis
of the literature
shows that
the cause
of such a
significant warming
in the present period
is still not clear.
There is even controversy
over whether the main factors
in the process are natural
or anthropogenic,
although the decided majority
of researchers assign
a greater role to natural factors
(Bengtsson et al. 2004;
Semenov and Latif 2012).
It would appear that the
greatest differences of opinion
on the causes of the ETCW
are to be found in works
presenting climate models
(see, e.g. Shiogama et al. 2006;
Suo et al. 2013), which is
an excellent illustration
of the still-insufficient knowledge
of the mechanisms governing
the Arctic Climate System.”