A January 2019, a paper
by Andrzej Araźny et al
appeared in the journal:
"Theoretical and
Researchers evaluated
weather data from
four scientific expeditions
to the Arctic Franz
Josef Land in the Arctic.
There was unusual heat
during a trip in 1930 / 1931,
when it was 4.6 °C warmer
than the modern average
in 1981-2010.
In the conclusion,
the authors compare
warmth of the 1930s
to today’s values:
" …during the
1930/31 expedition
it was 4.6 °C warmer
than the years
1981–2010.”
The paper presents
the variability of
air temperature,
wind speed, relative
air humidity and
wind chill temperature,
in the years 1899–1931.
The analysis mainly covered
the period October–April.
which includes
Franz Josef Land’s
coldest air temperatures.
The data analysis
revealed that
during the three
oldest expeditions
( between 1899 and 1914 ),
the conditions
were more harsh
to humans than
in the modern
period (1981–2010),
or similarly harsh.
The 1930/1931 expedition,
representing the
Early Twentieth
Century Warming
( ETCW ),
was much warmer.
In the discussion
the authors address
in detail the Arctic
warmth phenomenon
of the 1930s:
"In approximately
the last 140 years,
there have been two periods
of significant temperature
increases in the Arctic. "
"The first began
in around 1918–1920
and lasted until 1938
and has been called
the ‘1930s warming’
(Bengtsson et al. 2004)."
"Other works have
referred to this period
as the ‘Early Twentieth
Century Warming’
(ETCW, Brönnimann 2009)
or the ‘Early Twentieth
Century Arctic Warming’
(ETCAW, Wegmann et al.
2017, 2018)."
"Our results confirm
the observations
for the last expedition
from the historical study
period in 1930 / 1931."
"These years covered the
warmest part of the ETCW."
"In turn, the second
increased warming
of the Arctic
began around 1980
(Johannessen et al. 2004)
or according to
Przybylak (2007)
in about the mid-1990s."
"Changes in overall atmospheric
circulation have long been believed
to have been the cause of the ETCW
(e.g. Scherhag 1937)."
"As the modern climate warming
(since 1975) has progressed in
a largely similar manner
to the progression of the ETCW
(Wood and Overland 2010;
Semenov and Latif 2012),
there has been renewed interest
in the insufficiently well-explained
causes of the ETCW using the
latest research methods, including,
primarily, climate models."
"An analysis of the literature
shows that the cause of such
a significant warming in the
present period is still not clear."
"There is even controversy
over whether the main factors
in the process are natural
or anthropogenic, although
the decided majority
of researchers
assign a greater role
to natural factors
(Bengtsson et al. 2004;
Semenov and Latif 2012)."
"It would appear that the
greatest differences of opinion
on the causes of the ETCW
are to be found in works
presenting climate models
(see, e.g. Shiogama et al. 2006;
Suo et al. 2013),
which is an excellent illustration
of the still insufficient knowledge
of the mechanisms governing
the Arctic Climate System.”
