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Thursday, May 30, 2019

Goddard and Tett, 2019 -- UK urbanization significantly increases daily minimum temperatures

Note: 
I've kept the English 
spellings because 
I was too lazy to change
all of them, and used mainly
direct quotes, rather than
summarizing them in 
my own words

T max = maximum temperature of a day
T min = minimum temperature of a day
UHI = Urban Heat Island effect


" How much has 
urbanisation affected 
United Kingdom 
temperatures ? "

by Ian L. M. Goddard 
and Simon F. B. Tett

March 28, 2019

Atmospheric Science Letters 
published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd 
on behalf of the 
Royal Meteorological Society. 



This study estimated 
the affect of urbanisation 
on daily maximum 
and minimum 
temperatures in the 
United Kingdom. 

" ... This study looked 
only at differences
in recorded and reanalysis 
temperature data, and 
not the rate at which 
they are changing 
with respect to 
one another."

Urban fractions were calculated 
for 10 km×10 km areas surrounding 
meteorological weather stations. 

"This study finds there is no significant 
urban effect on the daily maximum 2‐m 
temperature but does find a significant 
increase in the daily minimum 
2‐m temperature due to urbanisation."

"The relationship found for T min 
in this study is in agreement with 
the results found by 
Trusilova et al. (2008) 
and shows a slightly stronger 
relationship than that found by 
Grawe et al. (2013)."

"The observed 
increase in T min 
can be attributed 
to an increased 
intensity of the UHI 
( urban heat island )
during the hours 
after sunset 
and into the night." 

"Many studies 
have previously shown 
that UHII is maximised 
during the night."
(Arifwidodo and Tanaka, 2015; 
Montávez et al., 2000; 
Ripley et al., 1996).

"The intensity is maximised 
during these hours, 
as heat absorbed by 
urban structures will be 
re‐radiated back 
into the atmosphere ... "

"With minimum temperatures 
often occurring at night, 
the slowed rate of cooling 
in urban areas results in an
increase of the observed 
minimum temperature."

"We observe that when considering 
an area of 400 km2 over 100 km2 
the effect may be increased, 
suggesting that a larger area 
may influence the UHII more 
than originally proposed 
in this study."





This paper finds, using a method 
of observation minus reanalysis, 
that urbanisation significantly 
increased the daily MINIMUM
2‐meters off the ground
temperature in the 
United Kingdom 
by up to +1.70K.

"For annual average ΔT min, 
an urbanisation effect of 
1.90 ± 0.88 K is found."

"Stronger relationships are found 
for ΔT min in the summer months 
where the maximum UHII reaches 
2.17 ± 0.78 K in May."




"The urban heat island (UHI) 
develops through changes 
to the surface energy balance 
due to anthropogenic (man made)
modifications to the land surface." 

"Previous studies have generally 
concluded that urban warming 
has had a negligible effect on 
global scale temperature series 
(Peterson et al., 1999; Parker, 2004)." 

"For example, Jones et al. (1990) 
showed that the urban warming effect 
corresponds to no more than 0.1 K 
over the last century. "

"However on regional scales, 
the affect of urbanisation 
on temperature
may be significant." 

"Specifically in China, 
where there has been 
large expansion of urban areas, 
a significant effect 
has been estimated." 

"Yan et al. (2010) concluded a large impact 
of urbanisation up to 0.54 K/decade 
on local temperature series in Beijing." 

"Whilst Zhou et al. (2004) showed 
a smaller urban effect 
of about 0.05 K/decade 
in south east China."

 "Yan et al. (2010) measured 
the significance of urbanisation 
by comparing temperature time series 
for urban and rural weather stations, 
observing a greater warming 
at urban sites." 

"However, it is 
difficult to classify 
weather stations as 
either urban or rural." 

"In their study Yan et al. (2010) 
used population density as 
a marker for urbanisation." 

"However, this data is often 
out of date and can be hard to obtain 
for rural areas
(Wang and Chen, 2016)." 

"Satellite data has also been used 
to asses the urbanisation of an area." 

"Hansen et al. (2001) used 
satellite measurements of 
night‐time light emissions 
to classify weather stations 
as either urban, semi-urban or rural;
where a station classed as urban 
was located in a bright area, 
a semi-urban station was located 
in a dimly lit area and a rural station
in an unlit area." 

"However ... stations classed as urban 
may be located inside well lit city parks, 
where the UHII is reduced by the 
park cool island (PCI) effect 
(Cao et al., 2010)."

"This study aims to deal with the problem
of urban/rural classification by determining 
the degree of urbanisation of a given 
weather station, rather than having 
discrete classes." 

"This is done through 
the use of a land cover /
land use dataset 
derived from satellite images 
to asses the fraction 
of urban material 
around weather stations 
(termed urban fraction)."