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Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Rappin' about climate change, Part 3 -- a surprise Tuesday post !

The "era of man made 
CO2 emissions" started 
roughly after 1940.

We have measured 
the global average 
temperature changes 
after 1940.

I'm not satisfied 
with all the infilling 
(wild guessing) 
required for surface 
temperature compilations, 
so I use the UAH 
satellite data that starts
in 1979, whenever possible.

The ACTUAL 
warming rate, 
cause unknown, 
in the 78 years 
from 1940 
through 2018, 
is less than 
+0.8 degrees C. 
per century.

The average 
climate model, 
excluding the 
Russian model,
obviously colluding 
with Donald Trump, 
predicts a FUTURE 
warming rate of about 
+3 degrees per century 
-- QUADRUPLE the 
ACTUAL warming rate 
while lots of CO2 
was added 
to the atmosphere
from 1940 through 2018.

Any start point 
other than 1940 
(1950 would be okay) 
is data mining.

Any short period of time 
that had a warming rate 
close to +0.3 degrees C. 
per decade, would make 
the average climate model 
look good.

The only period of time 
that really counts,
however, is from
1940 through 2018 
-- the entire period 
with lots of man made 
CO2 emissions. 

I could also accept 
1950 through 2018, 
since CO2 emissions 
ramped up even more 
after 1950.

Any other 
time period 
is data mining.  

Our planet 
has had 
intermittent 
global warming 
for over 300 years, 
since the late 1600s, 
during the 
Maunder Minimum,
low solar energy period, 
during the "Little Ice Age".

The warming since then, 
measured (real time) 
in central England, 
was at least +3 degrees C.

Very little of that warming, 
(perhaps up to 15%) 
could be blamed on 
man made CO2 
(as if anyone knew what CO2
really does in the atmosphere, 
with any precision).

The warming since 
the late 1600s 
has been good news.

The warming since 
the late 1600s 
has been almost 
entirely natural.

No one
in their right mind 
would want to stop 
that 300+ year 
warming trend, 
especially because of 
what we've learned 
in recent decades:

- The warming after 1979 
was mainly at high latitudes, 
mainly in the six coldest months 
of the year, and mainly at night. 

Ask the people 
living in Alaska 
if that's 
good news, 
or bad news, 
for one example !  

That's good news 
warming for them
 ( and not at all visible 
in a global average ) !

- Our planet is also 
significantly greening 
from more CO2 in the air.
.
.
.
That's the big picture, 
of PAST climate change 
-- all GOOD news.

Is it not strange that 
FUTURE climate change 
is ALWAYS predicted 
to be BAD news.

The same BAD news 
predictions have been 
made every year, 
for over three decades, 
yet the predicted 
BAD news climate, 
never arrives !

The UAH weather satellite
data show no global warming 
from early 2002 through 
the end of 2018 -- 
why do the mainstream 
media completely ignore 
that flat trend ?

And the warming rate 
predicted by the average
computer game model 
is QUADRUPLE 
the actual warming rate 
from 1940 through 2018 !

And no one reports that 
in the mainstream media !
.
.
So why is it that 
climate change skeptics 
spend so much time 
debating tenth of a degree 
global average temperature 
anomalies, and so little time 
spreading the news 
that PAST climate change 
has been mild, intermittent 
and good news ... and there's 
no logical reason to assume 
FUTURE climate change 
will be completely different?




For anyone less than 
78 years old, fossil fuel 
burning has been adding 
a lot of CO2 to the 
atmosphere for your 
entire life.

And although no one knows 
the exact effect of the CO2 
on the global temperature, 
the worst case, based on
actual past warming,
not computer games,
is global warming 
of less than +0.8 degrees 
warming per century 
= totally harmless
 -- pleasant, actually.

Even if you 
cherry picked 
data from 1979 
through 2018, 
the warming rate 
(with the cause unknown) 
was about +1 degree C. 
per CO2 doubling 
-- predicting about 
+1 degree C. 
global warming 
in the next 125 years 
(with +3ppm per year CO2 growth rate), 
to the next 200 years 
(with +2 ppm per year CO2 growth rate) !

And that worst case estimate
above assumes CO2 caused 
ALL the warming since 1979,
with no scientific proof
CO2 caused ANY of the warming.


Any way you look at it, 
PAST climate change 
was mild, and good news.

There's no logical reason 
to assume FUTURE 
climate change 
will be different.



The coming climate change
"crisis" is only in the overactive imaginations of devious leftists, 

They are trying to scare people, 
and then they claim
a more powerful 
central government 
is the ONLY "solution" 
to their imaginary crisis.

Of course leftists 
have always wanted
a more powerful 
central government.

The imaginary coming 
climate crisis is their 
latest tool to get what 
they've always wanted !