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Thursday, May 23, 2019

UAH South Pole temperature trend distorted by data mining

UAH South Pole 
weather satellite 
temperature data
happen to start 
in 1979
Version 6.0, LT
( lower atmosphere ).
You could claim a warming 
trend from 1979 through 2018, 
if you cherry picked
1979 as your starting year.
For many people 
who like that message,
that's enough "analysis".
But not for me.
1979 was an unusually 
cold year, so using a 
1979 starting point for a 
temperature trend line, 
would be deceptive 
data mining.
If you had started 
the trend line in 1980, 
the warming trend 
would disappear.
Change the starting year, 
by one year, and the 
trend changes ?
That tells you a trend line 
is not a good way 
to describe those numbers.
How about comparing 
one full year, 
with another full year, 
38 years earlier?
If you compared 
the year 2018, 
with the year 1980, 
you could say 2018 
was colder than 1980:
1980 average monthly 
temperature anomaly 
= +0.55 degrees C. 
(versus the 1981 to 2010 average)
2018 average monthly 
temperature anomaly
= +0.03 degrees C.
Antarctica was cooler 
in 2018, than in 1980 !
That's enough data mining.
Here's a honest analysis: 
A look at all the available 
UAH South Pole data 
on a chart (see below) 
shows a flat long-term trend, 
with lots of variations 
from year to year.
Antarctica temperature change
has been much different than 
Arctic temperature change, 
where significant warming 
since the 1970s has been 
assumed to be caused by CO2.
The flat temperature trend 
in Antarctica is very different.
It is contrary evidence 
for the claim that CO2 
is warming our planet.
The greenhouse theory 
says Antarctica warming 
should be similar 
to Arctic warming 
-- both dry areas 
should have a lot
more warming than the 
humid tropics
... but that's 
not happening !
Trends and averages 
can be a problem.

At worst, they are deceptive.
At best, they hide details.
That's why global averages
and trends are loved
by climate alarmists.
One important detail 
about Antarctica 
is how difficult it is 
to measure the 
temperature there 
accurately, even 
with satellites.
An even more important 
detail is the small amount 
of local warming
on some edges of 
the Antarctica glacier, 
meaning the rest 
of the continent 
MUST be getting 
colder since 1980.
The local Antarctica warming 
is in various locations
near known underseas 
volcanoes -- a very uneven
temperature change pattern 
that could NOT have been 
caused by greenhouse gasses.

Here's another Antarctica dataset: