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Thursday, May 23, 2019

UAH South Pole temperature trend distorted by data mining

UAH South Pole 
weather satellite 
temperature data
happen to start 
in 1979
Version 6.0, LT
( lower atmosphere ).
.
You could claim a warming 
trend from 1979 through 2018, 
if you cherry picked
1979 as your starting year.
.
For many people 
who like that message,
that's enough "analysis".
But not for me.
.
1979 was an unusually 
cold year, so using a 
1979 starting point for a 
temperature trend line, 
would be deceptive 
data mining.
.
If you had started 
the trend line in 1980, 
the warming trend 
would disappear.
.
Change the starting year, 
by one year, and the 
trend changes ?
.
That tells you a trend line 
is not a good way 
to describe those numbers.
.
How about comparing 
one full year, 
with another full year, 
38 years earlier?
.
If you compared 
the year 2018, 
with the year 1980, 
you could say 2018 
was colder than 1980:
.
(A)
1980 average monthly 
temperature anomaly 
= +0.55 degrees C. 
(versus the 1981 to 2010 average)
.
(B)
2018 average monthly 
temperature anomaly
= +0.03 degrees C.
.
Conclusion: 
Antarctica was cooler 
in 2018, than in 1980 !
.
.
.
.
That's enough data mining.
.
Here's a honest analysis: 
.
A look at all the available 
UAH South Pole data 
on a chart (see below) 
shows a flat long-term trend, 
with lots of variations 
from year to year.
.
Antarctica temperature change
has been much different than 
Arctic temperature change, 
where significant warming 
since the 1970s has been 
assumed to be caused by CO2.
.
The flat temperature trend 
in Antarctica is very different.
.
It is contrary evidence 
for the claim that CO2 
is warming our planet.
.
The greenhouse theory 
says Antarctica warming 
should be similar 
to Arctic warming 
-- both dry areas 
should have a lot
more warming than the 
humid tropics
... but that's 
not happening !
.
.
.
.
Trends and averages 
can be a problem.

At worst, they are deceptive.
.
At best, they hide details.
.
That's why global averages
and trends are loved
by climate alarmists.
.
.
.
One important detail 
about Antarctica 
is how difficult it is 
to measure the 
temperature there 
accurately, even 
with satellites.
.
An even more important 
detail is the small amount 
of local warming
on some edges of 
the Antarctica glacier, 
meaning the rest 
of the continent 
MUST be getting 
colder since 1980.
.
The local Antarctica warming 
is in various locations
near known underseas 
volcanoes -- a very uneven
temperature change pattern 
that could NOT have been 
caused by greenhouse gasses.



Here's another Antarctica dataset: