Total Pageviews

Thursday, May 2, 2019

U.S. warming mainly at night ( 79% )

The primary 
climate event 
at night
is our planet 
cooling off.

Outgoing longwave infrared radiation
is how Earth loses excess energy
into space. 

An increasing greenhouse effect 
would slow this energy loss. 

( If that energy loss is increasing, 
then Earth’s surface is warming 
for reasons other than an increasing 
greenhouse effect. ) 

Based on laboratory experiments,
it's expected, although not proven,
that CO2 will interfere with the 
planet's cooling process, although
the actual effect in degrees is unknown.

If half the planet does not cool 
as much, during it's night period,
because of more CO2 in the air,
or some other cause, that means 
the lowest temperature of the day, 
usually at night, would not be as low.

If a night doesn't cool as much,
then the average temperature 
of that day will be warmer.
( measured by adding the 
warmest temperature 
of the day, 
or ( Tmax ), 
usually in the afternoon, 
to the coolest temperature 
of the day, or (Tmin), 
usually at night, 
and dividing by two, 
to calculate the 
average temperature
of a day (Tavg) ).

Tmax and Tmin tell us more about
the temperature, than Tavg alone,
and looking at the 48 US states,
provides more useful information
to 330 million Americans, than 
a global average .

Averages always obscure details.

More important is knowing about your 
local area, or at least about your nation.

And not only an average temperature.

You'd want to know the 
% increase or % decrease 
in diurnal range, along with 
the % change in the average high, 
and % change in the average low,
for each month.

The global average temperature 
is not a temperature anyone on
this planet actually lives in !

Less night time cooling,
feels different than more
daytime warming, and is 
probably considered 
to be more pleasant,
by most people.

Most important about CO2 --
it's greatest greenhouse effect 
should be where the air is dry.

That's because water vapor,
the primary greenhouse gas,
"overlaps" the greenhouse 
effect of CO2 
( they affect some of
the same wavelengths 
of infrared energy, in 
laboratory experiments,
and the night cooling IS
infrared energy, rising off
the surface of our planet,
into the atmosphere, and 
some escapes into space ).

The driest air is found at high
( cold ) latitudes, during the 
six coldest months of the year.

The Arctic and Antarctica 
are where the greenhouse
effect should be strongest,
and the greenhouse effect
should be weakest in the 
humid tropics.

The Arctic, in fact, has had 
a lot of warming.

So the Arctic is used to "prove"
the greenhouse effect of CO2,
although there could be other
causes of the warming.

The Antarctic has had little
warming, and that warming
was "local" -- areas near the
edge of the glacier, that happen to 
be near underseas volcanoes,
which warm the ocean enough
to melt some nearby ice.

The greenhouse effect could NOT
cause local warming -- 
it would affect the entire continent.

So Antarctica is used to disprove
the greenhouse effect of CO2.

A study of some NASA satellite data
was reported by Roy Spencer, PhD
on his website

Spencer is in charge of compiling 
the UAH weather satellite global 
average temperature compilation.

For his study, he looked at NASA data
for their AIRS satellite temperatures.

The AIRS is an infrared temperature 
sounding instrument on the NASA 
Aqua satellite, providing data since 
late 2002.

Unlike the UAH satellites, that use  
microwave temperature sounder 
data ( data available since 1979 ), 
AIRS data are from infrared measurements.

The study looks ONLY at AIRS surface 
“skin” temperature measurements, 
at 2 meters above the surface
( the traditional surface temperature measurement height ).

( although AIRS actually 
retrieves temperature
profiles throughout 
the troposphere 
and stratosphere ).

For the United States, 
48 contiguous states,
Spencer found,
that in the 16.5 years
from September 2002,
through March 2019:  
( the 48 states cover only 2.5% 
of Earth's surface area,
but are very important 
to 330+ million Americans ), 

the AIRS surface data show:

... the temperature trend at night (1:30 a.m.) 
is a large +0.57 degrees C. per decade

... while the trend in daytime (1:30 p.m.) 
is a small +0.15 degrees C. per decade.

( Note: This pattern also shows up 
in globally-averaged land areas.
where the day-night difference 
was greatest in winter,
and weakest in summer.)

CO2 is 410 ppm at 1:30 AM, 
and 1:30 PM -- so its radiative 
properties are constant
24 hours a day.

But the warming is very different
during days, versus nights.

Night warming 
was 79% 
of the 
total warming:
0.57  /  (0.57 + 0.15)  =  79%

And the actual warming 
in those 16.5 years, was:
         0.57 +  0.15  /  2  
=  +0.36 degrees C. per decade

Real science is 
never certain, 
and never "settled".

Only junk science 
is claimed
to be "settled" !

Caveats for this study:

I don't know the actual 
accuracy of AIRS data.

The day - night difference, 
or the "diurnal" difference,
at 1:30 a.m., versus 1:30 pm, 
is NOT the the actual lowest 
and highest temperatures
of any of the days.

Using these fixed measurement 
times simplifies calculations.

The lower troposphere and 
surface temperatures 
can only be measured 
by AIRS between clouds,
or when there are no clouds.

That could cause sampling bias.