Source (16 page pdf):
"Global Sea-Level Rise:
An Evaluation of the Data"
May 2019
By Craig D. Idso,
David Legates,
and S. Fred Singer
"Summary:
Contrary to the
IPCC’s statement
that it is “very likely”
sea-level rise
is accelerating,
the highest quality
coastal tide gauges
from around the world
show no evidence
of acceleration
since the 1920s."
"Local and regional
sea levels
continue to exhibit
typical natural variability,
unrelated to changes
in the global
average sea level."
"Local sea-level trends
vary considerably
because they depend
not only on the
average global trend,
but also on tectonic
movements of
adjacent land."
"According to
the Working Group I
contribution to the
Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change’s (IPCC)
Fifth Assessment Report
( IPCC, 2013 ),
“it is very likely that the
global mean rate
[ of sea level rise ]
was 1.7 [1.5 to 1.9]
mm per year
between 1901 and 2010
for a total sea level rise
of 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21]
meters”
(p. 1139)"
The above was
a good summary,
which is rare in
scientific articles.
But there are
15 more pages
in the 16-page pdf,
so Ye Editor
will present what
I consider to be
the most interesting
quotes, and for clarity,
the quotes
from other sources,
that were used
in the Idso, Legetes,
Singere article,
will be shown in
yellow highlighted, blue ink, italics:
" ... sea-level rise
is a research area
that has recently come
to be dominated
by computer models."
" ... researchers working
with datasets built from
long-term coastal
tide gauges
typically report
a slow linear rate
of sea-level rise ... "
"The recent
Pleistocene Ice Age
slowly ended
20,000 years ago
with an initially slow
warming and a
concomitant melting
of ice sheets."
"As a result,
sea level rose
nearly 400 feet
to approximately
the present level."
"For the past
thousand years
it is generally
believed that
globally averaged
sea-level change
has been less than
seven inches
per century,
a rate that is
functionally negligible
because it is
frequently exceeded
by coastal processes
such as erosion and
sedimentation."
"Measuring changes
in sea level is difficult ... "
" ... the arrival of
satellite altimetry
created discontinuities
in datasets resulting in
conflicting estimates
of sea levels and
their rates of change
(e.g., Chen et al., 2013;
Cazenave et al., 2014)."
"Many researchers place
the current rate of global
sea-level rise at or below
the IPCC’s historic estimate
for 1901–2020 of 1.7 mm/ year"
"Parker and Ollier (2016)
averaged all
the tide gauges
included in the
Permanent Service
for Mean Sea Level
( PSMSL ),
a repository for
tide gauge data
used in
the measurement
of long-term
sea-level change
based at the
National Oceanography
Centre in
Liverpool, England,
and found
"a trend of about
+ 1.04 mm/ year
for 570 tide gauges
of any length. "
"Watson (2017)
notes:
“some 28 of the 30
longest records
in the Permanent Service
for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL)
global data holdings
are European,
extending as far back
as 1807 (Brest, France). "
"Such records provide
the world’s best time series
data with which to examine
how kinematic properties
of the trend might be
changing over time.”
"He chose 83
tide gauge records
with a minimum of
80 years reporting"
"Watson (2017)
reports:
“Key findings are that
at the 95% confidence level,
no consistent or compelling
evidence (yet) exists
that recent rates of rise
are higher or abnormal
in the context of the
historical records available
across Europe, nor is there
any evidence that
geocentric rates of rise
are above the global average. "
Frederikse et al. (2018)
comments on how:
“different sea level
reconstructions show
a spread in sea level rise
over the last six decades,”
citng among
the reasons
for disagreement
“vertical land motion
at tide-gauge locations
and the sparse sampling
of the spatially variable ocean.”
"Contrary to
the IPCC’s statement
that it is “very likely”
sea-level rise
is accelerating,
Burton (2018)
reports the highest quality
coastal tide gauges from
around the world show
no evidence of acceleration
since the 1920s or before,
and therefore no evidence
of being affected by
rising atmospheric
CO2 levels.
"Small islands and Pacific
coral atolls (an island made
of coral that encircles a lagoon
partially or completely)
are thought to be
particularly at risk
of harm from
sea-level rise due to
their low elevation and
fragile shorelines. "
"Since global sea levels
have risen slowly
but steadily since 1900,
and that rise is alleged
to have accelerated
since 1990, its negative
effects should be visible
as a loss of surface area,
but repeated studies
have found this is
not the case."
Ford and Kench (2015)
used historic aerial photographs
and recent high-resolution
satellite imagery to determine:
“shoreline changes on six atolls
and two mid-ocean reef islands
in the Republic of t
he Marshall Islands.”
This work revealed,
“since the middle of the
20th century more shoreline
has accreted than eroded,
with 17.23% showing erosion,
compared to 39.74% accretion
and 43.03% showing no change.”
Consequently, they determine:
“the net result of these changes
was the growth of the islands
examined from
9.09 km2 to 9.46 km2
between World War Two
and 2010.”
Ford and Kench conclude:
“governments of small island nations
need to acknowledge that island
shorelines are highly dynamic
and islands have persisted
and in many cases grown
in tandem with sea level rise.”