Yang, Z., Wang, Q. and Liu, P.
2019
"Extreme temperature
and mortality:
evidence from China."
International Journal of Biometeorology 63: 29-50.
SUMMARY:
Cold weather events represent
a much greater threat to human
health than warm weather events.
And the threat is larger in poorer regions
where citizens do not have as many
resources or technological capabilities
to adequately prepare for and endure
potentially deadly weather events.
Many policy makers support restrictions
on fossil fuel use because of concerns
about global warming.
But a little global warming
would likely produce a net saving
of lives -- a greater reduction
in cold-related deaths than
an increase in warm-related deaths.
DETAILS:
Yang et al. note the majority
of related studies examine
the relationship between
temperature and mortality
focusing only on heat waves.
Much less is known about
temperature-induced mortality
due to cold weather.
The three Chinese scientists
conducted a nationwide analysis
of the impact of temperature
on all-cause mortality using data
from 70 cities across China
over the period 2002-2013.
12 temperature-related indices
were analyzed in relation to
mortality data, six related to
hot weather extremes and six
related to cold weather extremes.
Yang et al. report that changes
in extreme hot and cold temperature
indicators were generally both
positively and significantly
associated with mortality.
The effects of cold weather events
were consistently more deadly
than warm weather events.
For example, annual death rates
attributed to cold spell durations
were 42.5% greater than those
due to warm spell durations.
The authors found evidence
of regional acclimation,
where the death rates
due to extreme hot weather
were larger in northern China
than in southern China.
Cold-induced temperature
mortality rates in the south
tended to be greater than
rates in the north.
The annual deaths due to
cold weather events across China
are presently a serious
health threat, where those
death rates "exceed the mortality
from leukemia and brain tumors."
Yang et al. also sorted their findings
by economic progress (represented
by GDP).
They found
"low-GDP cities were
the most affected regions
by the extreme temperature
events in China,"
where
"the health of people living
in low-GDP areas was especially
susceptible to the effects
of extreme cold spell duration."
Fossil fuel use is highly correlated
with GDP, so restricting fossil fuel
use could reduce GDP, which would
affect current low GDP areas,
already the most vulnerable
to unusually cold spells.