Source:
Mark Mills'
Manhattan Institute report:
“The New Energy Economy:
An Exercise in Magical Thinking"
GLOBAL
ENERGY USE
1.
Since 1995,
global energy use
rose by 50%.
2.
Since 1990,
global energy
efficiency
improved 33%,
as the economy
grew 80%.
3.
Global spending
on new jets
is more than
$50 billion a year.
Every $1 billion
of aircraft produced,
will require $5 billion
in aviation fuel,
over the next
two decades.
4.
Global spending
on data centers
is more than
$100 billion a year.
Every $1 billion spent
on data centers
leads to $7 billion
of electricity consumed
over the next two decades.
UNITED STATES
ENERGY USE:
1.
America uses 16%
of total global
energy use.
2.
Over 90% of
U.S. electricity,
and 99% of
the power used
for transportation,
comes from sources
that supply energy
any time it's needed.
FOSSIL FUELS:
1.
Hydrocarbons
supply over 80%
of global energy.
2.
It took 50 years for
global oil production
to expand 10-fold.
3.
Eliminating hydrocarbons
to make U.S. electricity,
would NOT affect 70%
of U.S. hydrocarbon use.
4.
Since 1995,
global air traffic
rose more than
10-fold, but
aviation fuel use
rose only 50%,
because aviation
fuel use per
passenger-mile
was down 70%.
RENEWABLES,
IN GENERAL:
1.
Solar and wind
supply less than 2%
of global energy.
2.
Getting to 2%
solar and wind,
required a
capital investment
of over $2 trillion.
3.
Global renewable
energy would
have to expand
90-fold to replace
hydrocarbons,
in two decades.
4.
Over a
30-year period,
$1 million worth
of utility-scale solar,
or wind power,
produces only
40 million, and
55 million kWh,
respectively,
over 30 years.
But $1 million spent
on shale wells
produces enough
natural gas
to generate
300 million kWh,
over 30 years.
5.
To compensate
for intermittent
wind and solar output,
U.S. utilities are using
oil- and gas-burning
reciprocating engines.
Three times as many
have been added
to the grid since 2000,
as were added
in the prior 50 years.
6.
Wind and solar power
produce energy an average
of 25% to 30% of the time,
when nature permits.
Conventional
power plants
can operate
nearly continuously,
and are available
when needed.
7.
Cost models for wind
and solar energy assume
41% capacity (wind) and
29% capacity (solar)
factors ( how often they
can produce electricity ).
Real-world data reveal
actual capacity up to
10 percentage points
lower than
the assumptions.
SOLAR POWER:
1.
Physics limit for solar cells
( the Shockley-Queisser limit )
is a maximum conversion
of about 33% of photons
into electrons;
commercial cells today
are already at 26%.
WIND POWER:
1.
Physics limit for wind turbines
( the Betz limit ) is a maximum
capture of 60% of the energy
in moving air; commercial
turbines already achieve 45%.
2.
It costs about the same
to build one shale well,
or two wind turbines.
But the turbines
produce
0.7 barrels of oil
( equivalent energy )
per hour,
while the shale well
averages
10 barrels of oil
( equivalent energy )
per hour.
BATTERIES:
1.
Batteries produced annually
by the Tesla Gigafactory
( world’s biggest battery factory )
can store only three minutes
of annual U.S. electricity demand.
2.
Enough batteries to store
two-day’s worth of U.S.
electricity demand would
require 1,000 years
of battery production,
by the Tesla Gigafactory.
3.
The maximum
theoretical energy
in a pound of oil is
1,500% greater
than the maximum
theoretical energy
in the best pound
of battery chemicals.
4.
About 60 pounds
of batteries
are needed to store
the energy equivalent
of one pound
of hydrocarbons.
5.
At least 100 pounds
of materials are mined,
moved and processed
for every pound
of battery fabricated.
6.
Storing the
energy equivalent
of one barrel of oil,
which weighs 300 pounds,
requires 20,000 pounds
of Tesla batteries
( $200,000 worth ).
7.
Carrying the
energy equivalent
of the aviation fuel used
by an aircraft flying to Asia,
would require $60 million
of Tesla-type batteries,
weighing five times more
than that aircraft.
8.
China dominates global
battery production ,
usimng an electric grid
that's 70% coal-fueled.
That means
electric vehicles
using Chinese
batteries will create
more CO2
than is saved
by replacing
oil-burning engines
with electric motors.
9.
It takes the
energy-equivalent
of 100 barrels of oil,
to fabricate
a quantity of batteries
that can store
the energy equivalent
of a single barrel of oil.
ELECTRIC VEHICLES:
1.
A 100x growth
in electric vehicles,
to 400 million
by the year 2040,
would reduce
global oil demand
by only 5%.