Headlines suggest
the world is on track
to ratchet up
renewable energy,
and begin the
rapid scale-down
and ultimate phase-out
of fossil fuels.
But energy analysts
consider the fossil-fuel
phase-out to be a scientific,
economic and political
fantasy land.
Governments everywhere
are declaring climate
emergencies and committing
to variations on zero emissions.
The international organization
promoting emergency
declarations claims
“a fast transition to
zero emissions is possible.”
Canada’s Green Party
has a new platform plan,
headlined “Mission: Possible,”
to eliminate fossil fuels by 2050.
A proposed Green New Deal
in America aims to eliminate
fossil fuels from the U.S.
power grid by 2030 and
phase gasoline out
of the transportation sector.
The magnitude of the
implied decarbonization
effort takes us into the world
of junk science fiction
"Carbon zeroists" are talking
about massive amounts
of government intervention
-- almost a total takeover
of the economy.
The required technological
and economic change required
would be overwhelming.
The general scale of the operation
is hinted at by Climate Mobilization,
an organization promoting
climate emergency declarations:
“Only WWII-scale Climate Mobilization
can protect humanity and the natural world.”
In Canada, for example,
Vancouver energy consultant
Aldyen Donnelly calculated
that to achieve the
“deep decarbonization”
Canada is aiming for,
will require massive
expansions of non-fossil
fuel sources of energy.
To produce the electric power
needed to offset fossil fuels,
Canada would have to build
2.5 hydro power dams
the size of British Columbia’s
$13-billion Site C project
somewhere in the country
“every year for the
foreseeable future”
to meet proposed 2050
carbon reduction targets.
The huge cost would make
that new construction
impossible.
For the entire world:
In 2018, world consumption
of fossil fuels rose to 11,865
million tonnes
of oil equivalent (mtoe).
To get that down
to near zero by 2050
would require a lot of
alternative energy sources.
University of Colorado scientist
Roger Pielke Jr. did some rough
estimates:
“There are 11,161 days until 2050.
Getting to net zero by 2050
requires replacing one mtoe
of fossil fuel consumption
every day starting now.”
On a global basis,
such a transition
would require building
one new 1.5-gigawatt
nuclear plant every day
for the next 30 years.
According to a U.S.
government site,
it takes about
three million solar panels
to produce
one gigawatt of energy,
which means by 2050
the world will need
3,000,000 X 11,865
solar panels
to offset fossil fuels.
The wind alternative
would require about
430 new wind turbines
each of the 11,865 days
leading to 2050.
No other tested technologies
exist to offset the fossil fuel
energy that would be lost
under the green zero targets.