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Tuesday, July 23, 2019

How to analyze a "Scientific Consensus" without knowing any science !

We constantly hear 
about a “consensus” 
on catastrophic 
climate change.

The primary purpose 
of claiming  a "consensus"
is to shut down debate.

“Consensus" means 
“general agreement”
or 
“group solidarity in 
sentiment and belief”,
according to a dictionary. 

A consensus can be 
based on data and 
other real evidence.

A consensus can also be
nothing more than 
unproven beliefs,
and groupthink.

Scientists are prone 
to groupthink, just like 
regular people ! 

Many scientific beliefs 
now known to be false, 
once had a consensus. 

Consensus 
"believers" 
never like 
to be questioned,
and that behavior 
did not start 
with believers in a
'coming climate 
change catastrophe'.


No one should trust
a scientific consensus 
before they have studied
the science themselves.

Even then, at some time
in the future, that consensus
is likely to be found to be
wrong -- ranging from slightly
wrong, to completely wrong !

Science is never "settled" -- 
if it was, we'd no longer 
have a need for scientists !



What happens if you don't
know much about climate 
science ?

What happens is you can't
review the science, but you can
look for suspicious behaviors
by the people who support 
and promote the consensus belief.

If you're shopping for a car,
for an off-topic example,
but you know almost nothing 
about cars, hearing a salesman 
say: "I have one of these at home", 
is suspicious behavior !



Here are examples 
of suspicious claims:


(1) 
Bundled claims:

The climate change example:
The planet is warming, 
and the warming is man made,
and the warming is going to 
cause a climate catastrophe.

Agreeing there has been warming
in the past 325 years, doesn't mean
agreeing on what caused that
warming, or whether the future 
warming will be a catastrophe.

The smarmy goal of bundling 
climate change claims is to
pressure people to "take sides"
-- either believe all the claims, 
or none of the claims.




(2)
ad hominem 
chracter attacks 
on skeptics:

It’s easier to insult a person, 
and claim they are not worthy
of debate, than it is to debate
them on the supporting science,
... or junk science.

The character attack labels 
of “denier”, "science denier", 
and "climate denier", are the 
most common examples
used by climate alarmists. 

When believers of
a scientific consensus
"debate" the skeptics 
with character attacks, 
that's very suspicious
behavior.




(3) 
Scientists are pressured 
to join the consensus:

Threats concerning 
tenure, job promotions, 
and government grants, 
media criticism, 
and negative 
Wikipedia entries, 
all erect barriers 
around what opinions 
are acceptable, and
will avoid "penalties".




(4) 
Peer review 
is "pal review":

Consensus scientists prevent 
publication of dissenting ideas,
not based on faulty science, 
but based on the fact believers
can't stand a diversity 
of conclusions.

This issue was mentioned in 
several ClimateGate hacked
e-mails in 2009 and 2011.




(6) 
Misrepresenting 
peer-reviewed studies:

The 97% consensus claim 
was based only on bogus 
"studies", that either ignored 
dissenting studies, or
misinterpreted them.

In 1992, former Vice President 
Al "The Climate Blimp" Gore,
confidently declared, 
that in his climate fantasyland:
"The time for debate is over.
The science is settled.” 

In 1992, a real life Gallup poll
“reported that 53% of scientists 
actively involved in global 
climate research did not believe 
global warming had occurred; 
30% weren’t sure; and only 
17% believed global warming 
had begun". 

A Greenpeace poll in that era
showed 47% of climatologists 
did not think a runaway
greenhouse effect was imminent; 
only 36% thought it possible and 
a mere 13% thought it probable.




(7)
The use of computer models:

Models don't produce data.

They produce whatever predictions
the programmers told them to predict !

We already have 30+ years 
of experience, with computer 
model climate projections 
that did not match reality. 




(8)
Claims we have to act NOW 
-- there's no time for debate !

Carl Sagan used to say:
“Extraordinary claims 
require extraordinary 
evidence.” 

Claims that we must act now, 
and getting more hysterical
every year, are the opposite 
of extraordinary evidence.




(9)
We keep being reminded
there's a scientific consensus.

But a consensus 
is only a popular vote.

It is NOT evidence.

A consensus 
is NOT relevant 
in real science.

A "consensus" 
is only important
for junk science !