The climate models
greatly overestimate
the greenhouse effect,
with the exception of
one Russian model.
Why do we need models ?
They completely ignore our
78 years of experience
with adding lots of CO2
to the atmosphere,
from 1940 through 2018.
We don't know how much,
if any, of the +0.6 degrees C.
warming from 1940 to 2018
was caused by extra CO2
in the atmosphere.
But we do know that amount
of warming is harmless,
because we lived through it.
The +0.6 degrees C. in 78 years
is equivalent to +0.77 degrees C.
in 100 years.
That's harmless warming, even
if we assume CO2 caused 100%
of the warming ( the UN's IPCC
guesses "over half", not 100% ).
Climate alarmists are
wild guessing that CO2
will cause warming
in the future ( based on
the average climate model,
excluding the Russian model ),
that would allegedly be
quadruple the actual
warming rate from
1940 through 2018.
It would be wise
to consider past actual
temperature changes, as
CO2 rose, as an educated
guess of the future.
Not the wild guessing
that the future warming
will be the past warming
times four !
That's climate scaremongering !
In fact, CO2's effect is
logarithmic, meaning
a future CO2 increase
of 100 ppm, will have less
of a an effect than the
past CO2 increase
of 100 ppm.
That logarithmic relationship
is why we try to estimate
the climate's “sensitivity
to a doubling of CO2
-- a 100% increase --
rather than the sensitivity
to a 100 ppm increase.
This fact appears to be
missing from the global
climate models, relied on
by the UN Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), and its followers.
The “forcing” (effect)
of greenhouse gas
( in watts per square meter )
is directly proportional
to the logarithm of the
amount of CO2 growth,
compared to some
starting amount.
The expected,
temperature rise
is proportional
to the “forcing.”
Climate alarmists have been
predicting +3 degrees C.
since the 1970s.
The UN's IPCC
adopted that theory
when it was formed
in 1988.
The IPCC claims
a doubling of CO2
will increase
temperatures
by +3 degrees C.,
plus or minus
1.5 degrees C.
Climate alarmists prefer
to Ignore 1940 to 1975,
which is "data mining".
CO2 levels increased
a lot from 1940 to 1975,
and climate alarmists
are very disappointed
the global average
temperature did NOT go up
-- in fact, the average
temperature went down.
So they ignore that period.
... except to gradually adjust
the historical temperatures
so that now, the significant
global cooling from 1940
to 1975 has "magically
morphed" into a flat trend.
Even ignoring 1940 to 1975,
the worst case assumption
for CO2 caused warming
would be +1 degree C.
per doubling of the CO2
level, not +3 degrees C.
per doubling of CO2.
Even more important,
no one knows if CO2
caused any of the warming
from 1940 through 2018,
because natural causes of
climate change could have
caused 100% of the warming.
Natural causes of climate change
ruled the earth for 4.5 billion years.
There is no evidence man made
CO2 became the "climate
controller" sometime during
the 20th century, and natural
causes of climate change
became unimportant.
Many people asserting that
does not create truth.
... And now you know
a lot more about
greenhouse warming
than any member
of the U.S. Congress !