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Saturday, August 31, 2019

Consistent failure of the "computer game" climate models to predict the climate

Computer models of the climate 
are the foundation of the hysterical
calls to ban inexpensive, reliable 
fossil fuel energy.

But the climate models 
are a house of cards foundation.

Real-world data does show 
mild, intermittent global warming,
mainly at night, and mainly in the
six coldest months of the year.

But actual warming has been
at a much slower rate than 
"confuser" models predicted.

And there has been 
no increase in the frequency 
of extreme weather events, 
except for the false claims 
made by liars.

Long term NOAA tide gauges 
reflect no obvious change 
in sea level rise from
adding CO2 to the air.

The rise in sea level,
since peak glaciation 
20,000 years ago, 
continues, but there
was no acceleration of
the rate of sea level rise
in the past 125 years,
from rising CO2 levels.



Consider actual temperatures 
since 1979, versus what the 
32 families of climate models
used in the latest U.N. IPCC
report had predicted.

Atmospheric scientist 
John Christy, PhD., 
compared models 
with observations
       ( measurements ) 
for a House Science 
Committee hearing 
in March 2017.

Christy compared 
global measurements 
made by weather satellites, 
and weather balloons, 
in the upper levels 
of the lower atmosphere. 
            ( troposphere )

Dr. Christy concluded 
the projected GLOBAL
warming by the models 
averaged three times 
what has been measured.

Over the vast tropics
the models predicted 
7 times as much warming
as has been measured.

These are HUGE errors. 



The tropical climate,
is very important.

Most atmospheric 
moisture originates 
in the tropical ocean.

The temperature 
difference between 
surface and upper 
atmospheric temperature 
determines how much 
of the moisture rises 
into the atmosphere. 

Most agriculture 
is dependent on 
transfer of moisture 
from the tropics 
to milder regions.



Dr. Christy was NOT looking 
at surface temperatures,
because those records 
have been compromised
by arbitrary "adjustments"
that create more warming
out of thin air:

EXAMPLES:
(1)
Surface thermometer records 
originally showed -0.3 degrees C. 
global cooling from 1940 to 1975,
even as CO2 levels rose.

The last time I looked, 
the cooling
had been "adjusted" 
to only -0.1 degree C.,
and I expect that some day 
the cooling period will 
be "gone" ( one can't show cooling
when CO2 is rising -- because
that might "confuse" some people! )


(2)
Surface thermometer records 
originally showed warming 
had stopped from 2000 to 2014.

Until 
"adjustments" 
wiped out
that "pause" 
in 2015.

The first "adjustment"
changed how ocean surface
temperature was calculated, 
by replacing temperatures 
from ships’ engine cooling 
water intakes, with 
drifting ocran buoys. 

The size of the ship 
had always determined 
how deep the water 
intake tube was, and
steel ships also warm up 
under sunny, hot conditions. 

The buoy temperatures, 
measured by sensitive
electronic thermistors, 
were adjusted upwards 
to match the questionable 
ship intake water data. 

The buoy network 
was growing during the
2000 - 2014 "pause",
so the warming "adjustments" 
creating artificial warming 
in the buoy data.


(3)
Another big "adjustment" 
was over the Arctic Ocean, 
where there are no
weather stations. 

Even in warm summers, 
there’s plenty of ice 
over much of the 
Arctic Ocean.

Temperatures were "infilled" 
(guessed), based on nearby 
land weather stations. 

Extending land readings 
over the Arctic Ocean 
adds nonexistent warming 
to the record.



(4)
Surface thermometers 
are housed in standardized 
instrument shelters, called
Stevenson Screens.

They are supposed to be kept 
a specified shade of white. 

Shelters in poorer countries 
are rarely repainted, or cleaned, 
... and a darker surface 
absorbs more of the sun’s energy.