SUMMARY:
Our planet has had
+0.5 degrees of
global warming
in the 78 years
since 1940,
as CO2 levels
increased +31.5%.
We do not know
what percentage
of that warming
was caused by CO2,
if any.
A worst case estimate
would be 100%.
You could also assume
the next 78 years
would be similar to
the past 78 years.
So the next 78 years
would have
another +31.5%
CO2 rise,
and another
+0.5 degrees C.
of global warming.
Which would be
as harmless as
the past 78 years !
There's no way
for anyone to make
a prediction better
than saying to expect:
"more of the same".
But smarmy leftists
can't accept a logical,
reasonable prediction.
Leftists don't care
about logic and reason.
For political reasons,
they want to scare
the world about CO2.
So they predict
+3.0 degrees C.
warming in the
next 125 years.
( average climate model,
assuming +3% annual CO2 growth )
INTRODUCTION:
Our planet is much warmer
than it was 20,000 years ago.
20,000 years ago,
Canada was covered with ice,
as was Detroit and Chicago.
In 10,000 years, all of that ice
had melted, obviously NOT
caused by burning fossil fuels.
10,000 years ago our planet
was slightly, to significantly,
warmer than it is today,
depending on which climate
proxy study you prefer.
Then there was gradual
global cooling, until the end
of the 1600's.
Based on real time
central England
temperature records,
( records not kept elsewhere )
the 1670 to 1700 average
temperature there
was roughly
2 degrees C.
cooler than today.
That means we've
most likely already had
about +2 degrees C.
of global warming
since the late 1600s.
Of that +2.0 degrees C.
warming, roughly
+1.5 degrees C.
happened before 1940.
Burning fossil fuels
could not have caused
much warming before 1940,
if any.
In summary, we have had
lots of climate change
unrelated to CO2.
Burning fossil fuels
could not have caused
more than a small
amount of that warming.
The global warming
in the past 20,000 years,
was almost entirely
global warming
from natural causes.
Most climate alarmists
would have you believe
natural causes of
climate change have
mysteriously disappeared.
No explanation is ever given.
THE FUTURE
CLIMATE
IS A MYSTERY
There is no evidence
that anyone has
ever accurately predicted
the future climate, not even
one year in the future.
Unfortunately that fact
does not stop predictions.
Since the 1970's, some
smarmy scientists have been
claiming a doubling of the
CO2 level in the atmosphere
will increase the global average
temperature by +3 degrees C.
Skeptics say the warming
since 1979, assuming it
was entirely caused by CO2
( with no proof CO2 caused
any of the warming ),
was at rate of +1 degree C.
per CO2 doubling
-- just one third
of predictions made
with that 1970's formula,
which is still believed today!
ACTUAL EXPERIENCE
WITH ADDING CO2
TO THE AIR
Since we can't predict
the future climate, or
future anything else,
is there any way to
estimate the effect
of CO2 on the
global average
temperature ?
There sure is:
Just assume the
rising CO2 and
rising temperature
in the past 78 years,
will continue in the
next 78 years !
Humans have been adding
lots of CO2 to the atmosphere
since roughly 1940.
But we have no idea what effect
that CO2 has had on the global
average temperature, if any.
Many people claim CO2
levels in the atmosphere
"control" the global average
temperature.
In fact, the exact causes
of climate change
are unknown.
The exact warming effect
of CO2 is unknown.
No human has ever
accurately predicted
the future climate.
And it is even impossible
to predict if the global
average temperature
will be higher, or lower,
100 years in the future.
A WORST CASE
ESTIMATE
FOR CO2 WARMING:
A significant rise
of CO2 emissions
is said to have started
after the Great Depression --
so the year 1940 is a good
starting point for an analysis.
We do know that
we have been adding
CO2 to the air after 1940,
from burning fossil fuels,
and there has been
intermittent global
warming after 1940.
A worst case estimate
of the CO2 warming effect
would be to blame
100% of the warming
after 1940
on carbon dioxide.
ACTUAL global warming
since 1940 has been
about +0.5 degrees C,.
in those 78 years**,
Common sense would
require guessing that
FUTURE global warming
would be similar to
PAST global warming.
Because there is
no logical reason
to predict something else,
especially a future
global warming rate
much faster than
past warming ... unless
the goal of predicting
a rapid rate of future
global warming,
was to scare people.
Real Climate Science:
Measurements
and observations
of the PAST and
PRESENT Climate:
1940 through 2018
(78 years ):
-- Global average
temperature increased
+0.5 degrees C.,
using the best global
measurements available.**
-- Atmospheric
CO2 levels
increased from
about 311 ppm (1940)
to 409 ppm (2018)
( up +31.5% )
** Actual warming
from 1940 to 1979,
using NASA-GISS data:
( no warming )
Actual warming
from 1979 through 2018,
using UAH Lower
Troposphere data:
( +0.5 degrees C. )
= +0.5 degrees C.
total warming,
from 1940
through 2018
Climate Junk Science:
Unproven CO2 theories and
unverified climate models,
used to make scary, always
wrong, predictions about
the FUTURE climate:
-- The computer games
predict an average
of +3 degrees. C.
global warming
in the next 125 years ****
**** Excludes the reasonable
Russian climate model,
and assumes +3% growth
of atmospheric CO2 levels
in the next 125 years,
somewhat higher
than recent CO2
growth rates.