The belief that adding CO2
to the atmosphere could
be harmful seemed to start
with oceanographer Roger
Revelle, in roughly 1957.
In spite of adding lots of
CO2 to the atmosphere
from burning fossil fuels
since roughly 1940,
there was no global warming
from 1940 to 1975 !
The lack of global warming
until 1975 seemed
to cause some attention
seeking scientists
to predict a coming
global cooling crisis
in the mid-1970s.
When the global warming
began, scaremongering
about global warming
ramped up in the second
half of the 1970s.
The 1979 Charney Report
was published by the
National Academy
of Sciences,
It stated that a doubling
of carbon dioxide (CO2)
would increase the global
average temperature
by +3 degrees C., with a
large margin of error
of +/- 50%
( +/- 1.5 degrees C., or
+1.5 to +4.5 degrees C. )
In Fahrenheit,
that would be
about +6 degrees F.,
+/- 3 degrees F.
This guess has NOT changed
in 40 years, believe it or not,
in spite of much evidence
it grossly over estimates
warming caused by CO2.
Warming caused by CO2
is an assumption,
not a proven fact.
This +3.0 degrees C. guess
has remained the same
through five major
climate assessment reports
by the UN Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change
( IPCC ),
and four National Assessments
by what is now called US Global
Change Research Program
( USGCRP ).
The Charney Report
relied on climate models.
"Our confidence
in our conclusion
that a doubling of CO2
will eventually result
in significant temperature
increases and other climate changes
is based on the fact that the results
of the radiative-convective and
heat-balance model studies
can be understood in purely
physical terms and are verified
by the more complex GCM's"
(GCMs = General Circulation Models).
Models were used because
there were no data for
temperature changes in
the troposphere, where
relevant global warming
would take place.
Weather satellites began
collecting atmospheric data
that could be used to
calculate temperature
trends in December 1978.
Procedures to make
those calculations
were not published
until 1990.
Since then,
some small adjustments
were made to adjust for
satellite orbital decay and drift.
Over the past 40 years,
some scientists have worked
to increase climate model
resolution, as computer power
became less expensive.
But those scientists
apparently have ignored
testing models' predictions
against measurements.
Compared with the
satellite measurements,
the US global climate models
greatly overestimate
warming of the atmosphere.
As with the Charney Report,
the models are tested only
against other models.
The relevant greenhouse effect
occurs in the atmosphere.
Until the models accurately
predict atmospheric
temperature trends,
climate science is not
settled.
How bad are the models ?
There is one Russian model
that seems to predict future
global warming will be similar
to past global warming.
It seems to be accurate,
probably by chance
( by assuming the existing
warming trend will continue ).
The many other
climate models,
when averaged,
predict about
+3 degrees C. warming
per CO2 level doubling
(CO2 up 100%).
Just like the 1979
Charney Report !
The average model says
if the CO2 level increased
+3% a year, which is
a little faster than in
recent years,
then in 125 years
the CO2 level
would be up 100%
and the global average
temperature would be
up +3 degrees C.
The global warming
measured by satellites
in the troposphere,
since 1979,
suggest +1.5 degrees C.
global warming from CO2
increasing by 100%,
and that requires
the assumption
that all warming
was caused by CO2,
which may be
far from reality.
So the average model,
excluding the very
unusual Russian model,
predicts a warming rate
double of what happened
from 1979 through 2018.
The models look much worse
when we examine the rise
of atmospheric CO2 levels
since 1940 -- CO2 started
ramping up after the Great
Depression.
From 1940 through 2018,
which is 78 years,
the global average
temperature increased
about +0.5 degrees C.
( UAH satellite data from 1979
through 2018 was about +0.5 C.,
and NASA-GISS surface thermometer
data was unchanged from 1940
through 1979, for a total warming
of +0.5 degrees C. )
A warming rate
of +0.5 degrees C.
in 78 years
is equivalent to
+0.8 degrees C.
in 125 years.
PAST GLOBAL WARMING
( REALITY ):
+0.5 degrees C.
of global warming
in the 78 years
from 1940 through 2018,
extrapolated to 125 years
= +0.8 degrees C. warming in 125 years.
FUTURE GLOBAL WARMING
( FANTASY ):
= +3.0 degrees C. warming in 125 years
There is no logical
or scientific reason
to ignore the
past global warming,
and predict
a future warming rate
that is so much faster !