Thursday, October 24, 2019

Climate modelers continue to make fatal modeling flaws -- The earth is not flat !

The real “flat Earthers” 
are climate modelers.

They still simulate 
a flat world, due to 
their limited 
computing power.

And they have not yet 
been able to predict 
actual global warming.

German climate scientist 
Dr. Sebastian Lüning's
comments on this subject 
(in German) were at the 
Die kalte Sonne website. 

Dr Lüning cites a recently 
published paper by
Prather and Hsu, 
who claim that climate 
models assume the earth
to be flat, which results 
in major inaccuracies 
in their results.

“The real flat-earthers 
are the climate modelers,” 
Lüning says.



Did you know that 
all climate models 
assume a flat earth? 

A study by Michael Prather 
and Juno Hsu in PNAS 
explains that this 
simplification causes 
powerful distortions 
in computer simulations.



Sunlight drives the Earth’s 
weather, climate, chemistry, 
and biosphere. 

An assumption 
in climate models is 
a flat Earth atmosphere. 

Spherical atmospheres 
intercept 2.5 Wm−2 
more sunlight, heating 
the climate by an additional 
1.5 Wm−2 globally. 

With a 
flat atmosphere 
assumption, 
regional heating 
prediction errors, 
particularly at 
high latitudes, 
have been huge.

Unlike flat atmospheres, 
the constituents in a 
spherical atmosphere, 
such as clouds 
and aerosols, 
alter the total amount 
of solar energy 
received by the Earth. 

To calculate 
the net cooling 
of aerosols 
blocking sunlight,
in a spherical 
framework, 
one must count 
the increases 
in both incident and 
reflected sunlight.

That reduces
the aerosol 
sun blocking effect 
by 10% to 14%, 
relative to using 
just the increase
in reflected sunlight. 



But why correct
the climate models ?

They grossly 
over predict 
global warming,
and have done so 
for over 30 years, 
yet no government 
bureaucrat scientist
seems to care.

The mainstream press
reports every scary climate
prediction, but not the fact 
they are 100% wrong.



Early climate and weather 
models were constrained 
by computing resources.

The radiative transfer 
of sunlight through 
the atmosphere, 
has always been 
a costly component. 

As computational ability 
expanded, these models 
added more resolution, 
becoming the Earth system 
models that we use today. 

While many of the original 
approximations have since 
been improved, one of them
— that the Earth’s surface 
and atmosphere are locally flat
—remains in current models. 

Correcting from 
a flat to spherical 
atmospheres would lead 
to regionally differential 
solar heating predictions 
-- and the new 
regional predictions 
could not be any worse 
than the past regional 
climate predictions 
have been!

A spherical atmosphere 
assumption would change 
how we evaluate aerosol 
direct radiative forcing.

The authors of the study 
claim the resulting 
climate model errors 
are in the order of magnitude 
of the total greenhouse gas 
effects ( aka "forcing" ) ! 

Meaning solar 
irradiation and 
aerosol forcing 
are falsified by 
climate models.