I normally reject
all long term
climate predictions,
because they are
so often wrong.
Making them
worthless
But ... the coming
climate change "crisis"
is nothing more than
a long term climate
prediction repeated
every year,
for about 50 years,
that's always wrong!
The predictions
do get LOUDER,
and more confident
every year.
Now we have
climate change hysteria,
led by AOC and her
Communist Manifesto-like
Green New "Ordeal",
and an angry teen-age
high school dropout,
with a mental illness,
from Sweden.
In recent years
the same
consistently wrong
long term
climate prediction
is still made.
Climate alarmists
have moved on,
to debating
how many
trillions
of dollars
the government
"must" spend
to "fight" the
climate change.
AOC wants
$93 trillion
over 10 years,
although
most Green
New Deal
spending is for
socialist
programs,
that have
nothing to do
with the climate.
I'll have a long article
on the Green New Deal
in a few days, that was
originally published
in he last issue
of my newsletter,
ECONOMIC LOGIC.
So here I am,
living happily
in Bingham Farms,
Michigan, about
five miles north
of Detroit, and
I WANT LOTS OF
global warming.
Please give me
a few degrees F.
of warming
every day
of the year!
Here in Michigan,
it's been colder
than average since
mid-December 2018.
And November 2019
may be the worst
month yet.
We had enough snow
last week to cover
the ground.
And a forecast
that no day
will even reach
42 degrees F.
through November.
That's unusually cold.
Long term
climate
predictions
are just
wild guesses.
No one
on this planet
knows if
the world
will be warmer,
or cooler,
in 100 years,
or even
next year.
I have no problem
with local weather
forecasts for
the next week
-- meteorology
science supports
good accuracy
for at least
three days.
One good question:
Can anyone
can forecast
whether
this winter
will be colder
or warmer
than usual.
The air is driest
in the winter, so
greenhouse gasses
should cause
more warming then,
when there is
less competition
with water vapor
( water vapor is the main
greenhouse gas in the air ).
My first thought
is that increasing
CO2 levels
ought to be
causing
milder winters,
and that seems
to be happening,
especially in
the northern half
of the Northern
Hemisphere.
"Warmer winter nights
in Alaska" describes
one of the biggest
climate changes
since 1975.
But for unknown
reasons, increased
greenhouse gasses
have not had the
same effect
on Antarctica.
The overall
Antarctica
temperature has
barely changed
since the 1960s.
There has been
some local warming
in various places
on the edge
of the glacier,
near underwater
volcanoes
That's a local
warming pattern,
that could not be
caused by CO2.
The rest of the continent
must be getting colder,
because the average
has been steady.
Long term tide gauges
do not reflect any change
in the rate of sea level rise
since the late 1800s.
There's no acceleration
of sea level rise
from global warming
visible in the data.
Please see
the many links
to tide gauges
on stable land,
with long term
sea level records
at the end
of this article:
"Experts"
are warning us
that this will be
an unusually
cold winter.
Just like
last winter
in Michigan?
Winter officially
begins in about
one month,
and it already
feels too cold !
The best attribute
about a prediction
for the next
few months,
is it won't
take long
to find out if
the prediction
was nonsense!
According to the
latest USDA
crop progress
report, a lot of
corn in the
U.S. midwest,
planted late
due to flooding,
was not harvested
during October.
Cold weather
in November
will make 2019
the worst year
in many U.S.
farmers' lives.
Not long after the
Farmers’ Almanac
suggested it would be
a “freezing, frigid,
and frosty” season,
with excessive
precipitation,
the *other*
Farmer’s Almanac
released a
similar forecast.
The Old Farmer’s
Almanac,
which was
founded in 1792,
used the word
“snow-verload” ,
to describe
the conditions
we can expect
in the coming
months.
There is a decent
scientific explanation
for their forecasts.
Consider the predictions
by an international panel
of experts at NOAA’s
annual Space Weather
Workshop, about the
next solar cycle.
Solar energy
is not constant.
The sun
seems to have
a small range
of variations.
Sunspot counts
are a proxy
for solar energy
variations.
Very few sunspots
mean solar energy
is near the lowest
level of the range.
The panel expected,
already-low
sunspot counts,
will reach a trough
sometime between
July 2019 and
Sept 2020,
followed by a
slow recovery
toward a new
Solar Maximum
in 2023-2026.
“We expect Solar Cycle 25
will be very similar to Cycle 24:
another fairly weak maximum,
preceded by a long, deep
minimum,” said panel
co-chair Lisa Upton,
a solar physicist
with Space Systems
Research Corp.
But that would actually
be a best case scenario.
Some believe we are
entering a long period
of low solar activity,
called a "Minimum".
One example
was between
1645 and 1715,
when the normal
11-year sunspot
cycle vanished.
This period, called
the Maunder Minimum,
was coldest in the 1690s
( based on Central England
real time temperature
measurements ):
The Maunder Minimum
is the most famous
Minimum, out of four
during the Little Ice Age.
Europe's
growing season
became shorter
by more than
a month.
There were
several famines
in Europe, due to
the longer winters
and shorter summers.
The ground froze
to several feet.
Alpine glaciers
advanced all
over the world.
Glaciers in the
Swiss Alps
encroached on
farms and
buried villages.
Tree-lines
dropped
in the Alps.
Sea ports
were blocked
by sea ice
that surrounded
Iceland and Holland
for about 20 miles.
Fishing settlements
in Iceland and Greenland
were abandoned.
The population of Iceland
decreased by about half.
Icebergs were seen
floating near the
English channel.
Wine grape
harvests
diminished.
Cereal grain
harvests failed,
leading to some
mass famines
(Fagan, 2007).
The Thames River
and canals and rivers
of the Netherlands
froze over during
the winter.
Venice canals froze.
In parts of China,
warm-weather crops
that had been grown
for centuries
were abandoned.
In North America,
the early
European settlers
experienced
severe winters.
No one liked
that cold climate
-- they prayed for
"global warming"!
Today,
we are roughly
+2 degrees C.
warmer.
So far in 2019,
there have been
over 200 days
without a single
sunspot.
We don't know
when solar activity
will return to normal.
But at least we have
a logical explanation
for a colder than usual
winter prediction.
Below are
links to many
tide gauges with
long term records: