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Saturday, November 23, 2019

Energy Policy -- "Cheap Reliables" versus "Expensive Unreliables".

Many nations 
consider their
energy policies 
to be
encouraging 
renewables.

Mainly wind 
and solar. 

And encouraging 
purchses of 
electric cars.

But there has been 
little success 
in reducing global
CO2 emissions.



U.S. EU and 
Japan combined,
reduced CO2 
emissions by 5% 
since 2005. 

Emissions had been 
slowly rising between 
1981 and 2005. 


Peak CO2 emissions 
for the Soviet Empire 
were in 1990.

By 1999, 
CO2 emissions 
for the same 
batch of nations,
were down 37% 
from 1990.


China and India 
ramped up 
manufacturing and 
other heavy industry 
in the late 1990s, 
and early 2000s.

Meaning more 
CO2 emissions.




Population from 
1965 to 2018, 
based on a 
2019 UN estimate:












Population was flat 
in the former Soviet Empire 
( 2% growth from 1997 and 2018 ). 

US, EU and 
Japan combined
grew by 11% 
between 
1997 and 2018.

A growing 
population 
also increases 
CO2 emissions.



Falling real oil prices 
are too low for producers
to stay profitable, and invest
more in oil production.:











Renewables sound good,
but don’t live up to the hype.

Wind, solar, hydroelectric, 
geothermal, and others 
are called “renewables”.












Their infrastructure and
equipment are built with 
the use of fossil fuels.

When total system costs 
are counted, renewables 
are very expensive.

Total system costs 
include back-up
natural gas generators, 
and/or 
expensive batteries.


After at least 20 years
of subsidies, the EU 
has been able to increase 
renewables (other than 
hydroelectric) to only about 
10% of total energy supply. 



Coal is causing 
ground-level pollution
in China and India. 

But without growing coal 
production, world GDP 
growth starts slowing. 



IPCC climate model
predictions assume 
fossil fuel use 
can grow indefinitely. 

And coal 
production 
will continue 
at a high level 
for many years, 
even though world 
coal production 
has been flat 
for several years?



The push toward 
more renewables 
makes no sense 
when including the 
costs of new
transmission lines 
to distant wind 
and solar farm
locations, and 
the very expensive
battery backup.