SUMMARY:
An easily proven
false paper on
climate science
passed peer review,
and was published
recently in a
significant journal.
The errors were huge.
It also used a dataset
found online that
was never peer
reviewed.
The wrong conclusions
from the paper have been
promoted by many
"trained climate parrot"
activist scientists
and the mass media.
They promote ANY
bad news prediction,
or "analysis", about
climate change
without question.
That's why
this blog exists.
DETAILS:
A recent paper published
by the Proceedings
of the National Academy
of Sciences (PNAS),
was by a team of authors
led by Aslak Grinsted
(a scientist who usually
studies ice sheets
at the University
of Copenhagen).
The paper falsely claimed:
“the frequency of the
very most damaging
hurricanes has increased
at a rate of 330% per century.”
The press release
announced that
United States mainland
“hurricanes are becoming
bigger, stronger and
more dangerous”
and with the new study,
“doubt has been eradicated.”
That conclusion contradicts
decades of research
and hurricane observations
over the past century,
or more.
There are are no
upwards trends in U.S.
hurricane landfalls
and no upwards trends
in the strongest storms
at landfall.
These conclusions have
even been supported
by the political groups:
The Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC),
U.S. National Climate
Assessment, and recently
by the World Meteorological
Organization.
Peer review almost always
defends the majority view
-- so it is anti-science.
The new PNAS paper
shows that peer review
is so bad it sometimes
completely ignores
actual data, making
PAS look like fools.
The paper uses
no actual climate data
on hurricanes,
believe it or not.
It uses data on
economic losses
from hurricanes.
Of course anyone
with sense knows that,
over time, economic
growth lead to more
and more assets
(homes, buildings
factories etc.) existing,
that increase the stock
of all assets vulnerable
to hurricane damage.
Then the
hurricane counts
used in the paper
contradict hurricane data
from the U.S. Commerce
Department's National
Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA).
From 1900 to 1958,
NOAA reports 117
total hurricanes struck
the mainland U.S..
The new paper says only 92.
They missed 25 hurricanes.
From 1959 to 2017,
NOAA reports 91
total hurricanes struck
the mainland U.S..
The new paper says 155.
They added 64
extra hurricanes.
So, the new paper
claims 247 hurricanes
hit the US since 1900.
That's 18.8% higher
than NOAA data:
197 hurricanes
made landfall,
of which 9 made
two unique landfalls
for total landfalls
of 197 + 9 = 208.
1900 to 1958:
Major problem
with the paper:
If a hurricane
resulted in
no reported
property damage
(I guess downed
trees in a forest
don't count ),
then the paper
assumed the
hurricane
did not exist.
1959 to 2017:
Major problem
with the paper:
Counting many
tropical storms
as hurricanes.
The paper also identified
trends in hurricane losses
that are the result of two
datasets being improperly
combined.
Below is the
historical record
of U.S. hurricanes.
(So far, 2019
has had two landfalls --
the season ends
November 30, 2019).
US Hurricanes
Continental U.S.
hurricane landfalls
1900 - 2018:
Continental U.S.
landfalling major
(Category 3+)
hurricanes
1900 - 2018.
