SUMMARY:
The UN Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC)
attributes most change
in global average
temperatures to
carbon dioxide,
practically ignoring
the major greenhouse
gas water vapor, and
almost completely
ignoring 4.5 billion
years of natural
climate change
NOT caused by CO2.
The IPCC also guesses
future growth of CO2
in the atmosphere.
They don't
use the
term guess --
they talk about
"Relative
Concentration
Pathways"
(RCPs)
RCPs relate to
Earth’s "energy
imbalance",
in watts per
square meter.
The IPCC’s
5th Assessment
Report
(AR5, 2013)
defines RCPs
in increasing
order of energy
imbalances,
as RCP
2.0W/m2;
4.5 W/m2;
6.0 W/m2; and
8.5 W/m2.
The extreme growth
of CO2 RCP 8.5 yields
scary temperature
predictions that
climate scientists
and politicians love.
The less extreme
RCP 6.0 makes more
sense, but still makes
the climate model
predictions look bad.
The more modest
RCP 4.5 recognizes
that many nations
are trying to slow
CO2 emissions
growth.
Using RCP 4.5
should make
climate model
predictions
seem very
reasonable.
If the model predictions
using RCP 4.5 are not
close to reality, then
the models are wrong.
Here's the results
of several models
assuming RCP 4.5.
The good news is
few predictions
are near triple
of reality.
With RCP 4.5,
all predictions
are more than
double of reality,
but most are not
far above double.
I guess that's
close enough
for government
climate "science"?
DETAILS:
John Christy, of the
Earth System Science
Center at the University
of Alabama in Huntsville,
compared some
US climate model
simulations using the
KMNI Climate Explorer,
from the Royal Netherlands
Meteorological Institute
(KNMI),
the Dutch national
weather service.
10 simulations using
two NCAR / UCAR models
(CCSM4 and CCSM1)
funded by the National
Science Foundation (NSF)
3 simulations using
three Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)
models,
1 simulation using
a model funded by NOAA
34 simulations using
the two Goddard Institute
for Space Studies (GISS)
models funded by NASA.
The temperature
observations
are the Tropical
Mid-Tropospheric
Temperatures
from 1979 to 2018
(40 years)
taken from
four different
balloon datasets;
the average
of three different
satellite datasets;
and the world-wide
reanalysis datasets
used daily for
calibrating
weather models.
Starting in 1995,
the models began
to greatly
overestimate
the warming
of the tropical
mid- troposphere.
The overestimate of
temperature trends
for the RCP 4.5 scenario
is just over twice
the actual warming
that happened.
TEMPERATURE
REALITY:
From balloon and
satellite data,
the average trend
in increasing
atmospheric
temperatures is
+0.12 degrees C.
per decade.
TEMPERAURE FROM
CLIMATE MODELS:
Two NASA - GISS models:
+ 0.25 C. per decade
+ 0.26 C. per decade
Three GFDL models:
+ 0.40 C. per decade
+ 0.32 C. per decade
+ 0.33 C. per decade
Two NCAR / UCAR models:
+ 0.26 C. per decade
+ 0.24 C. per decade.
Even under this
low 4.5 RCP
CO2 emissions
scenario, none
of the models
come close to what
actually happened
in the atmosphere.