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Wednesday, November 6, 2019

The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index Says Hurricanes Are Not Getting Worse

SUMMARY:
Many media sources 
claim global warming 
is making hurricanes 
more frequent and 
more devastating.

They have no data 
to back up that 
conclusion, 
because
the conclusion
is wrong.



DETAILS: 
"Hurricane" is the name 
for a tropical cyclone
that happens to be 
in the North Atlantic Ocean
or North Pacific Ocean. 

Weather satellite 
coverage became 
global in 1970.

Ryan Maue has a PhD 
in meteorology from 
Florida State University 
( where tropical cyclones are a specialty ).

Maue developed 
an objective history 
of cyclones / hurricanes 
since global satellite 
coverage began. 

He multiplies 
their wind speed 
by the length of time 
that those winds blow, 
to estimate the power 
of individual storms. 

Adding all the world’s 
storms up every year
since 1970, results in 
The Accumulated Cyclone 

Since 1970, temperatures 
fell a little until about 1977.

Then temperatures rose
+0.5 degrees C. to the 
early 2000s.

So, if global warming 
is actually making 
hurricanes worse, 
then Maue’s ACE Index 
should show that.

But there is no trend 
in the global ACE Index, 
that correlates with 
global average
surface temperature 
changes.










The ACE Index is
a global measure.

For Atlantic Ocean 
hurricanes near the U.S.,
the National Oceanic and 
Atmospheric Administration’s 
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics 
Laboratory in Princeton, said 
this, in an August 2019 
publication:
“In the Atlantic, it is 
premature to conclude 
with high confidence 
that human activities
 — and particularly 
greenhouse gas emissions 
that cause global warming
 – have already had 
a detectable impact
on hurricane activity."