Controlling coal
power development
and supporting
renewable energy
was the core
of China’s energy
policy in the
current 13th
Five Year Plan
(2016-2020).
That 13th Five Year Plan
for Energy was drafted
in 2015.
In 2015, China made
an international pledge
to peak carbon emissions
by 2030, and increase its
share of non-fossil energy
to 20%, by 2020.
China achieved its 2020
climate target ahead
of schedule, but faces
a HUGE challenge in
achieving 2030 goals.
In recent years China
seem to be moving
in the wrong direction.
It seems like the
2016 - 2020 energy plan
had been significantly
revised in 2018 and 2019.
The 14th Five Year Plan
for Energy (2021-25)
may be very different
than the 13th Plan.
It appears that
solar and wind energy,
will have to compete
with coal power,
without any subsidies.
In the past few years,
Chinese policymakers
significantly moved
in the direction of
building more coal
power plants in
the future.
They now see coal
as the bedrock of
"energy security",
because they have
a lot of coal !
There is no public
consensus on the
role of coal in the
14th Five Year Plan.
But words and actions
in the past few years
strongly suggest
coal power will be
a higher priority
in the national energy
policy for the next five
years.
If there is more coal use,
in the next Five Year Plan,
the HUGE challenge
in achieving 2030 CO2
emissions goals, will
become IMPOSSIBLE.
Keep reading
this report,
and you
can decide
for yourself.
China (and India)
play a big role in
causing air pollution,
which I care about,
and a big role in reducing
CO2 emissions, which
climate alarmists care
about.
Based on real science,
adding CO2 to the air
accelerates plant growth,
supporting more life on
our planet.
But adding CO2 to the air
without modern pollution
controls, leads to unhealthy
air pollution.
China (and India) have
serious air pollution
problems, which affect
all surrounding nations
-- even the U.S. west coast.
And you can be confident
that a nation with serious
air pollution also has serious
water and land pollution.
Climate alarmists want
China to cut fossil fuel use,
to reduce CO2 emissions,
which are NOT pollution.
I want China to clean up
their fossil fuel emissions,
to reduce the real pollution,
which is visible and
unhealthy.
Emitting the
staff of life
-- CO2 --
will not be
beneficial
for our planet,
if the air ends
up polluted.
If adding CO2
also causes
global warming,
as lab experiments
suggest it will,
that's good news too
-- a warmer planet
supports more life.
The climate alarmist claim
that the global average
temperature was "right"
in 1750, and warming
since then has been
bad news, is junk science
for gullible people.
The coolest climate in the
past 800 to 1,000 years
was in the 1690s -- people
living then hated that cold
decade.
While 1750 was not as cold
as the 1690s, it was still
a cool climate -- so that
over one degree C. warming
since then has been
GOOD news, and another
one degree of warming
would be even better.
In previous articles,
I've described China
planning to build
a lot of new
coal power plants,
compared with a few
years ago, when they
were reducing
the use of coal.
It's possible that newer,
cleaner coal plants are
intended only to replace
the older, dirtier
coal plants.
China's National Energy
Administration announced
they had already eliminated
20 gigawatts (GW)
of old, inefficient
coal-fired power units,
and is set to stay under its
cap of 1100GW of installed
coal capacity.
It's also possible that China
is suffering from the Trump
trade war, so is reverting
to using cheaper coal
energy for manufacturing,
to help offset tariffs,
rather than moving toward
more expensive solar and
wind farms.
While it is always risky
to trust the Chinese
government, there is
a very important
Energy Commission
that seems to be
in control there:
The National Energy
Commission in Beijing
was established in 2010,
but met only four times
before 2019.
Each NEC meeting
has had a significant
impact on policymaking.
The fifth meeting was
on October 11, 2019.
Premier Li Keqiang
chaired the meeting,
emphasizing China’s
"energy security"
and coal utilization,
and he downplayed
the importance of
a rapid transition
away from fossil fuels.
The Commission
was attended
by more than
20 chiefs of China’s
ministries and bureaus.
It is the top body
for coordinating
China's energy
policy.
There has been
an increase
in domestic
consumption
of oil and gas,
mainly being met
through imports.
China’s dependence
on energy imports rose
from 9% in 2014 to
more than 20% in 2018.
China’s domestic crude
oil production has declined,
while shale gas and coal bed
methane projects have not
been successful.
The government’s desire
for "energy security"
is good news for coal,
because China has
lots of coal.
Solar and wind
power capacity
have grown rapidly
in recent years,
exceeding the
five-year target.
Li Keqiang
tossed out
some
political
platitudes,
by promoting:
“safe and green
coal mining”,
“clean and efficient
development of
coal-fired power”,
and to
“develop and utilize
coal bed methane”.
I don't see how coal
mining could be "green".
This year Li downplayed
China’s low-carbon
energy transition.
At the prior meeting in 2016,
he had called on China to:
“increase the proportion
of renewables in the
energy mix”
and
“accelerate”
such a transition.
This year, there was
no mention of
renewable energy’s
percentage share
of the energy mix.
And "acceleration”
was replaced by
the bland term:
“development”.