SUMMARY:
The IPCC’s 1990
projections were
for global warming of
+0.3◦C. per decade
( ranging from
+0.2◦C to +0.5◦C.,
per decade )
Actual warming,
even when trying
to make the
IPCC models
look good
by using
the warmer
non-global
surface
temperature
data,
rather than
near global
satellite data,
was about
+0.15◦C.
per decade
through 2018,
double the
warming that
actually happened
+0.3 degrees C.
per decade
PREDICTED
vs.
+0.15 degrees C.
per decade
ACTUAL
With other
start dates,
using the satellite
temperature data
(which has MUCH
better global coverage),
and excluding the
only climate model
that seems to make
decent predictions
(I NM-CM4, Russian
Institute for Numerical
Mathematics Climate
Model Version 4 ),
the IPCC prediction
would be
closer to triple
the actual
warming rate,
rather than double.
Closer to quadruple,
starting in 1940,
at the beginning
of the ramp up
of CO2 emissions,
( backtesting
the climate
models. )
Model predictions
are least accurate
starting in 1940,
and using satellite
temperature
data after they
become available
in 1979 .
Reason:
The CO2 level
increase from
1940 to 1975
did NOT cause
any global warming
in that time period
... but the models,
when backtested,
all predict warming
from 1940 to 1975,
because CO2 levels
were rising.
The climate models
(falsely) assume
CO2 levels are the
"control knob"
of the
global average
temperature.
That's why their
predictions are so
inaccurate, even if
you cherry pick
data TRYING
to make
the models
look good !
DETAILS:
The Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC)
was established in 1988,
by the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO) and the
UN Environment Programme
(UNEP).
The alleged goal
was to provide
'objective’ scientific
information on
climate change.
But the IPCC was
NEVER objective.
Because the UN's
actual goal
was to use the
IPCC to demonize
fossil fuel use,
by claiming that
burning fossil fuels
will cause a future
climate crisis.
31 years later, we are
still waiting patiently
for the alleged climate
crisis to arrive !
Some scientists
began predicting
a climate crisis
since 1957.
Our planet has had
4.5 billion years of
NATURAL climate
fluctuations.
The IPCC
began with
a false conclusion
-- assuming,
with no evidence,
that all NATURAL
causes of
climate change
were no longer
important.
So every change
of the climate,
after the IPCC
was formed,
could ONLY
be blamed
on humans,
whether
true or not,
because
there was
no other
choice !
That false
assumption about
NATURAL causes
of climate change
means the IPCC
never cared about
real climate science.
The UN's IPCC’s initial
1990 forecasts of
global warming have
shaped current global
‘climate change’ policies.
But the IPCC’s forecasts
have consistently, and
grossly, overstated
the global warming
that actually happens.
The CO2 - temperature
change "formula"
the IPCC prefers
for predictions
is from the 1970s.
The IPCC has never
rejected the formula,
even after it grossly
over-predicted
global warming
for many decades.
In fact, the next IPCC
report is expected to
predict an even faster
rate of global warming,
in spite of over predicting
warming for 31 years !
The IPCC is obviously
not a real scientific
organization -- it is a
political organization !
The IPCC is a political
organization, with the goal
of demonizing man made
CO2 emissions.
The IPCC goal, which has
not changed since formation
in 1988, is to promote the UN
as a global government
to control global energy use,
and "fight" climate change.
The IPCC consistently,
and falsely, claims Earth's
climate has barely changed
in the past 10,000 years.
In reality there have been
significant temperature
trends from natural causes:
-- 20,000 years ago:
Canada was covered
by a thick ice glacier,
along with Chicago
and Detroit.
-- Then the warmer than today
Holocene Climate Optimum
(9,000 BC to 5,000 BC),
and the
-- Minoan Warm period
(c. 1500 BC),
-- Roman Warm Period
(250 BC to 400 AD),
-- Medieval Warm Period
(950 to 1250), and
-- Little Ice Age
(1350 to 1750).
-- Modern Warming
(1750 to tbd)
The IPCC produced
five climate change
assessment reports,
in 1990, 1996, 2001,
2007 and 2014.
The First Assessment Report
in 1990 created the false
idea that climate change
was a serious problem.
Global warming,
which is now called
"climate change",
was claimed to be
a challenge with
global consequences,
requiring international
cooperation.
Future IPCC reports
said the same thing.
There would be
an average rate
of increase of global
mean temperature
during the next century
of about +0.3◦C
per decade
(with a range of
+0.2 to +0.5◦C
per decade),
assuming the
IPCC Scenario A
(business-as usual)
CO2 emissions.
The IPCC had estimated
that temperatures in 1990
were about +1◦C higher
than in the pre-industrial
period, which was identified
as "pre-1750".
Pre-industrial
temperatures
are just a guess.
But we do know 1750
was part of the cool
Little Ice Age period
-- not a pleasant climate
that anyone would call
"normal".
The IPCC’s claim
was that by 2025,
temperatures
would be about
+1◦C higher
than in 1990.
And +3◦C higher
than in 1990,
before the end of
the 21st century.
In the IPCC's Fifth
Assessment (2014),
they chose to compare
temperatures with
1850–1900.
There are some real time
temperature data for
1850 to 1900, but almost
entirely data from the
Northern Hemisphere
... with a very haphazard
methodology used for
N.H. ocean measurements
The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment
(2014) concluded that the
global surface temperature
increase by the end of
the 21st century was ‘likely’
to exceed +1.5◦C relative
to the 1850–1900 period,
but was ‘likely’
to stay below +2.0◦C,
in a few scenarios,
and below +3◦C,
in most scenarios.
The IPCC had slightly
downgraded forecasts
of the ‘warming’ to be
expected by the end
of the 21st century,
compared with their
1990 assessment.
There are two main ways
of compiling a global
average temperature:
Surface Temperatures:
– HADCRUT
(U.K. Met Office’s Hadley Centre
and the UEA’s Climatic
Research Unit)
– NASA - GISTEMP
(NASA’s Goddard Institute
for Space Studies)
– NOAA
(US National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration).
Satellite Temperatures:
-- University
of Alabama
at Huntsville
(UAH)
-- Remote Sensing
Systems (RSS).
Satellite data are measured
in the troposphere, where
the relevant greenhouse gas
effect takes place.
The laws of physics
tell us that a warming
troposphere should warm
the surface of our planet
... but could NOT warm
the surface more than
the troposphere
had warmed.
Unfortunately, the
surface temperature
"measurements"
consistently show
MORE warming than
satellite temperature
measurements.
I write "measurements"
in parentheses because
many surface areas
have no thermometers,
and many surface
weather stations
do not provide
consistent monthly
data over a long
period of time.
The surface is divided
into thousands of
grid cells.
In any given month,
over half the grid cells
include wild guess
temperatures for
the entire cell,
or wild guesses
for one of more
weather stations
in a the cell.
The government bureaucrats
who make those wild guesses,
for missing temperature data,
WANT lots of global warming.
Their primary employer,
the U.S. government,
wants a coming climate crisis
to be predicted, so belief in
a coming climate crisis
was mandatory for science
bureaucrats getting hired i
n the first place.
Of course, once they predict
a coming global warming
crisis, science bureaucrats
want their predictions to be right.
They know that
most of their jobs
would not be needed
if there was honesty
about the climate --
the current climate
is wonderful, has been
getting better for over
300 years, and the
coming climate crisis,
predicted since 1957,
is a false boogeyman.
“It is difficult to get a man
to understand something,
when his salary depends
on his not understanding it.”
Upton Sinclair
A coming climate crisis
belief gives politicians
a boogeyman -- a reason
to ramp up government
spending and power.
Leftists politicians
live for more power !
And even better for them,
they demand more power
while virtue signaling
-- (falsely) claiming
they NEED the power
only because they are
trying to save the planet
for the children !
Government
bureaucrats with
science degrees
are given the
opportunity
to create
global warming
'out of thin air',
when "infilling"
the missing
temperature data.
That's a huge
conflict of interest.
Climate science
is not "settled"
by the very
political IPCC,
because the IPCC:
(1)
Starts with a conclusion,
(2)
Ignores 31 years
of their very wrong
climate predictions,
(3)
Allows politicians
to write the final draft
of their "Summary for
Policymakers",
releasing the thick
scientific backup reports
MANY months later,
with no press release,
knowing that no one
in the media will ever
compare the two
DIFFERENT sets
of books !
(4)
Is supported by
a biased "free press"
that loves climate
doom stories,
and acts as the
public relations
department
of the IPCC.
A "free press"
that could not
care less about
three decades
of the IPCC
grossly
over-predicting
global warming !