Climate science is not settled
"Radiative forcing" measures
how many Watts of solar energy
are absorbed (Earth warming),
and radiated (Earth cooling)
per square meter
of the Earth’s surface.
The IPCC says incoming
solar energy averages
342 Watts/m2, with about
a third bouncing off clouds,
or the ground, leaving
235 Watts/m2to be absorbed.
To avoid global warming
or cooling, there must be
an “energy balance”.
The incoming energy
must equal the
outgoing cooling
-- heat escaping
into space.
Our planet always has
a changing climate,
so the concept of
an energy balance
makes no sense.
CO2 added to the
atmosphere should
slow down the escape
of the surface energy
(cooling).
Based on lab experiments,
CO2's effect should be mild.
Since 1750, the total CO2
effect is estimated to be
1.82 Watts per square meter.
In recent times,
the CO2 effect is estimated t
o be growing at about
0.2 Watts per square meter
per decade
( +0.09% every 10 years).
That's a small number,
considering the
annual average error
in measurement
of outgoing energy,
at the top
of the atmosphere,
of at least 11 Watts
per square meter.
So the estimated change
in radiative forcing,
over ten years, is only
1/50th of the annual range
of measurement error.
It would take 550 years,
at the current estimated
rate of human emissions,
for the increase in
radiative forcing to be
larger than the range
of measurement error !
An atmosphere with
no greenhouse gasses,
such as water vapor,
would radiate all incoming
energy back to space,
leaving the planet very cold.
How much extra energy
is being trapped as a result
of all human greenhouse
gas emissions around
the world ?
The estimate is
two-tenths
of one Watt
per square meter
per decade, or
0.09% per decade.
That figure is
50 times smaller
than the average annual
measurement error
in radiative forcing.
Meaning we have not
really measured anything.
Based on closed system
lab experiments, using
artificially dried air,
CO2 does not affect
the temperature
very much.
Doubling
the CO2 level
in the atmosphere,
which could take
over 100 years,
might cause
+1 degree C.
of global
warming,
or less,
which is
harmless.