The scientific method
is a process of trial,
and error correction.
It's used to evaluate
various concepts,
ideas, and guesses.
If the guesses agree
with physical evidence,
obtained by experiments
and / or observations,
they may be correct.
If the guesses
do NOT agree with
the physical evidence,
then they MUST
be changed
or discarded.
That does not happen
in climate junk science !
Global climate models
are nothing more than
complex mathematical
versions of the
personal opinions,
and assumptions,
of the modelers.
The global
climate models
are too elaborate
for third parties
to evaluate
their internal logic,
and the many
assumptions.
So their ability
to predict the
future climate
is the starting point
for evaluating the
complex climate
models.
We have 40 years
of US climate models
FAILING to correctly
predict atmospheric
temperature trends.
So there's
abnsolutely
no reason
to assume that
the latest climate
model predictions,
made this year,
will be accurate
in predicting the
future climate.
And forming
government
policies,
based on
the climate
computer game
predictions,
is stupid.
Greenhouse gases
in the atmosphere
slow the cooling
of the Earth.
The cooling
is constant,
but is easiest
for us to notice
after the sun sets.
The cooling process
is a transfer of invisible
infrared wavelength
energy from Earth's
surface to space.
In the atmosphere.
greenhouse gases absorb,
and re-radiate, some of the
rising infrared radiation
emitted by the surface.
Water vapor is the
strongest greenhouse gas,
by far, yet climate models
ignore water vapor variations !
Greenhouse gases
warm the atmosphere,
by reducing the transfer
of heat (energy) to space,
which indirectly warms
the surface.
Warming of the surface
can have many causes
other than indirect
greenhouse gas
warming.
Measurements
of global warming
in the atmosphere
have consistently
reflected LESS
warming than
measured near
Earths surface.
In real science,
that would
be a problem
-- surface
measurements
are obviously
not reflecting
the actual
greenhouse
warming in
the atmosphere.
In junk climate science,
which you read about
every day in the media,
atmospheric temperatures,
measured using satellites
in a constant environment,
are simply ignored.
The differences between
surface temperatures and
troposphere temperatures
are ignored.
Most problems with the
UN - IPCC’s predictions
are from their
failure to follow the
scientific method.
They ignore all the
contradictory evidence.
They substitute
questionable
indirect evidence
for direct evidence.
The Union Of
Concerned
Scientists
is actually
a non-scientific,
political
organization,
that should
include
the words
"Junk Science"
in their name.
They are
so anti-science
that they describe
any comparisons
of climate model
predictions,
against the
direct temperature
measurements,
as “cherry-picking”
contradictory
evidence !
They favor
ignoring
all evidence
that does not
support their
coming climate
crisis beliefs.
One example of
failure to apply
the scientific method
is ignoring significant
past warming events
in the Arctic.
The Arctic
has been warming
since the 1970s.
The Arctic warming
has been much faster
than any other part
of our planet,
even though CO2
is fairly evenly
distributed in
the atmosphere.
The cause of the
current warming
is not known.
It is simply
DECLARED
to be
carbon dioxide.
No questions, or any
alternative explanations,
are allowed !
Arctic warming
has happened before
the 20th century,
and the cause was
definitely NOT
carbon dioxide.
" When Warming is Cooling ! "
by Jim Steele,
Landscapes and Cycles,
December 31, 2019
On his blog,
Landscapes
and Cycles,
environmentalist,
and conservationist,
Jim Steele,
summarizes
the science well:
“Over the past 100 thousand years Greenland’s ice cores recorded 24 extreme warming episodes when air temperatures suddenly rose 14°F - 28°F (8°C - 16°C) in a few decades, or less.
More recently, over 4,000 years in the Canadian Arctic, decades of rapid ice loss accompanied air temperatures 3°F -10°F warmer than today, quickly followed by centuries of more sea ice and colder temperatures.
Although the physics of those dramatic warming events are still in play today, the good news is [that] warming climates [actually] minimize such dramatic warm events.”
“The most extreme Arctic warming episodes were named “Dansgaard-Oeschger events” in honor of two scientists who discovered them.
Although Greenland experienced the greatest warming, Dansgaard-Oeschger events affected climates globally.
Ventilating warmth [energy transfer from the surface to the atmosphere] changed global atmospheric circulation, shifting European forests and altering California’s ocean currents.
Counter-intuitively, each Dansgaard-Oeschger extreme warming event happened during the last Ice Age when the northern hemisphere was covered with great ice sheets and global temperatures were 5°F-14°F (3°C - 8°C) colder than pre-industrial times.”
Note:
See my next article
on Dansgaard-Oeschger
extreme warming events
Note:
The Atlantic Ocean
transports some
tropical heat
to the Arctic.
Steele says:
“The same dynamics triggering past Dansgaard-Oeschger events provide insight into today’s Arctic warming.
During the 1970s and 80s, measurements over an ice covered Arctic recorded cooling air temperatures prompting researchers to publish, “Absence of Evidence For Greenhouse Warming Over the Arctic Ocean In the Past 40 Years.”
Note:
Those cooling
air temperatures
obviously did not
reduce Arctic sea ice.
“Arctic winds can trap ice in the Arctic causing ice to thicken.
However, when the winds shift, thick sea ice will be blown out and melt in warmer Atlantic waters.
The resulting open water and thinner ice allows more Arctic subsurface heat to ventilate [transfer energy away].
In addition to wind-driven ice loss, satellites reveal the greatest area of open Arctic waters corresponds to the pathway where warm dense tropical waters, via a branch from the Gulf Stream, enter the Arctic and melt sea ice from below.
It is now widely believed high inflows of warm Atlantic water helped to melt sea ice and trigger the Dansgaard-Oeschger warm events, just as oscillating warm inflows now melt Arctic sea ice today.”
I recall reading
about D-O events in:
“Unstoppable
Global Warming:
Every 1,500 Years”
By S. Fred Singer
and Dennis Avery,
published in 2007.
D-O warm events,
and the book, are
completely ignored
by climate alarmists.
They have zero interest
any natural causes
of climate change.
The book features
graphs showing :
- A relationship between
Arctic warming and
solar activity since 1880,
- 6,000 years of changing
temperatures in China
based on peat cellulose, and
- The relationship between
changing solar activity
and monsoon activity
in Oman based on stalagmites,
But never mind
that real science.
It's so much easier
to falsely claim
that CO2 levels
are the only
"control knob"
of the temperature,
blame fossil fuels,
and then claim ONLY
a much more powerful
leftist government
can save the planet !
And never mind
that predictions
of the coming
climate crisis
began in
the late 1950s,
and have been
near hysterical
for the past
30 years.
Meanwhile,
the climate
of our planet
has been
getting better
every decade,
and is
now the best
climate in 800
to 1,000 years,
since before the
relatively cold
Little Ice Age
centuries.
More recently,
we've had
global warming
since the 1690s.
How much of that warming
could have been caused
by burning fossil fuels ?
Maybe 10% to 15% ?
Certainly very little.
You won't read
about that in the
mainstream media.
Junk climate
science also means
ignoring all facts and
data that contradict
the "religious beliefs"
of climate doom.
The imaginary
coming climate
change doom
allegedly can
only be prevented
if everyone does
EXACTLY
what the climate
alarmists say,
without question !
And don't you forget it !