IS THERE A COVID-19
CLIMATE CHANGE
CONNECTION ?
COVID-19,
aka "Wuhan Flu",
may be sensitive
to temperature
and humidity,
like many of the
more common
strains of flu are.
Early virus hotspots
were Wuhan (China),
Daegu (South Korea)
and Qom (Iran).
( Note that the actual
virus is SARS-CoV-2 )
All three locations
are in a narrow
latitude band
( 30N-35N ),
and all have
similar climates.
A lot of Chinese
citizens vacation
in warmer Thailand
... but Thailand
did not become a
COVID-19 hot spot.
Maybe climate change,
such as warming of the
Northern Hemisphere,
as we approach
the summer,
will be helpful ?
There is also
an unusual age effect,
with people under 40
resisting the virus.
Italy, Spain. and Japan
have high median ages,
so are more susceptible.
FLU HITS EVERY YEAR
In the U.S., during
the colder months,
1,000 deaths a week
from all strains of the
flu, is not unusual.
In comparison,
COVID-19
has killed
fewer than
100 Americans,
as of today,
March 17, 2020.
And the very
unprecedented
"social distancing"
actions will slow
the spread.
I'm hoping
that in a few
months, people
here in the U.S.
will look back,
and feel that
governments
over reacted !
2009 H1N1 SWINE FLU
There had been
a serious bout of the
H1N1 "Swine Flu"
in 2009.
I didn't even
remember it
until recently.
According to
CDC estimates,
global deaths
from H1N1 flu
were between
about 8,870
and 18,300,
between
April 2009
and April 2010.
Other estimates
were higher,
or much higher!
These are
more data
to compare
with COVID-19.
CORONAVIRUSES
There are many
different kinds
of coronaviruses.
Most cause colds,
or other mild
respiratory
( nose, throat, lung )
illnesses.
There have been
far more deadly
coronaviruses
in the past:
(1)
Severe Acute
Respiratory
Syndrome
( SARS ),
and
(2)
Middle East
Respiratory
Syndrome
( MERS ).
Coronaviruses
are named because
they appear different
under a microscope.
They appear
to be covered with
pointed structures
that surround them
like a corona,
or crown.
SARS was first
discovered in Asia,
in February 2003.
The SARS outbreak
lasted six months.
SARS spread
to more than
two dozen countries
in North America,
South America,
Europe, and Asia,
before being stopped
in July 2003.
In September 2012,
the World Health
Organization
was notified of 2,494
laboratory-confirmed
cases of MERS
in the Middle East.
The fatality rate
was a very high
34.4% !
ERS had subsided
by June 2013.
In 2015, there was
a second
MERS outbreak
in South Korea,
with 186 cases,
and 38 deaths.
COVID-19
spreads easier
than SARS or MERS,
but is far less deadly.
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH ?
Real exponential
growth never stops.
That’s NOT
what happens
with a disease
such as
COVID-19.
The growth of the
total number of
COVID-19 cases
in South Korea
and China is now
leveling off.
( China’s numbers
are questionable,
but South Korea's
can be trusted ).
There's an
“s-shaped” curve,
slanting to the right,
which is called a
“Gompertz Curve”:
y(t) = α * exp(-β * exp(-k^t)
t = time
alpha = upper asymptote
beta = growth displacement
k = growth rate
A Gompertz Curve
ends up at a
maximum value
that it does not
exceed.
"Social distancing"
can significantly
flatten the curve.
It appears that
flu deaths in China
and South Korea
are nearing
such a peak.
What works for
all flu viruses,
and this advice
is not new:
(1)
wash hands and
fingers thoroughly,
(2)
social distancing,
(3)
avoid large gatherings,
(4)
self-quarantine
if you have symptoms.
COVID-19 IN CHINA
China's current
population
is more than
1,437,000,000,
based on the latest
United Nations data.
Total 2018
China mortality,
from all causes,
was 7.121 deaths
per 1000 people,
or 28,035 deaths
per day.
The total
COVID-19
deaths were
reported as
about 3,200
over the past
two months,
or an average of
50 deaths per day.
Averaging 50
COVID-19
deaths per day,
adds only +0.18%
to a "normal"
death total of
28,035 per day.
Hysteria and stress
about COVID-19
are counterproductive.
That advice
applies to
global warming
hysteria too.