Several climate models
of the latest Sixth Coupled
Model Intercomparison Project
(CMIP6)
predict stronger warming,
inconsistent with past
assessments, which
on average, had already
predicted 2x to 3x
the global warming
that actually happened.
International
climate
assessments
[e.g., Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC)
Assessment Reports ]
rely heavily on
results from multiple
climate model simulations
collected in model
intercomparisons.
Model intercomparisons
have always featured
diverging model projections,
for the question of how much
warming to expect for a
doubling of the atmospheric
CO2 concentration.
The long-term warming range
of the Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project Phase 5
(CMIP5) models was interpreted
in the IPCC Fifth Assessment
Report (AR5) .
Phase 6 of the Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)
are for the upcoming Sixth
Assessment Report (AR6)
of the IPCC.
CMIP6 will include
the latest generation
of comprehensive
Earth system models
( ESMs ),
driven by future
greenhouse gas
and aerosol
concentrations
according to
the various Shared
Socioeconomic
Pathways (SSP)
model scenarios.
The first CMIP6
models submitted
to the archive
suggest that CMIP6
will span a wider range
of warming responses
to CO2 than the
CMIP5 models.
One third of the
CMIP6 models
submitted to date
( 10 of 29 models )
exceed the range
of +1.5° to +4.5°C
global warming
for ECS
( the long term effect
of the CO2 level doubling)
that had been reported
as being likely in the
last IPCC report (AR5).
It appears that future AR6
climate projections will
predict faster global warming,
than the warming previously
oredicted in AR5.
A more near-term (transient)
global warming that arises
after 70 years of a 1% per year
increase in atmospheric CO2
concentration is referred to
as the transient climate
response (TCR).
If historical temperature
measurements were
considered, then we'd
expect new models to
predict SLOWER global
warming, rather than
predicting 2x to 3x more
global warming than
actually happened.
In real science,
the old CMIP5
climate models
would be said
to be "falsified",
unable to predict
the future global
average temperature.
In climate junk science,
however, the models are
just science props --
they predict whatever
their owners program
them to predict.
Their owners want to predict
a dangerous future climate.
So they do.
That past predictions
were very wrong
does not matter.
The mainstream media
will never report that
past climate predictions
have been grossly inaccurate.
But they will publish
any scary, wild guess
climate prediction,
without question.