Several climate models
of the latest Sixth Coupled
Model Inter-comparison
Project ( CMIP6 )
predict much stronger
global warming,
inconsistent with past
assessments ( CMIP5 ).
You would think future
warming predictions
would be constrained
by the measured
global warming
in the past.
Think again --
climate computer
games have
no constraints.
The Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change
( IPCC )
Assessment Reports,
and national climate
scenarios, rely heavily
on results of multiple
climate model
simulations,
collected in model
inter-comparisons.
Climate model
inter-comparisons
have always featured
diverging
model projections,
for the question of
how much global
warming to expect
for a doubling
of the global
atmospheric CO2
concentration.
The multi-model average
may be biased high, or low,
when many models
are biased the same way,
or when near-duplicate
models are included.
The long-term
warming range
of the Coupled Model
Inter-comparison Project
Phase 5 (CMIP5) models
was interpreted in the
IPCC Fifth Assessment
Report ( AR5 ).
Phase 6 ( CMIP6 )
of the Coupled Model
Inter-comparison Project
will be the basis for the
upcoming Sixth IPCC
Assessment Report (AR6).
The first models submitted
to the archive suggest
that CMIP6 will span
a wider range of warming
responses to CO2
than CMIP5.
Several new CMIP6 models
have equilibrium climate
sensitivity (ECS)
values higher
than the
CMIP5 models
( they are predicting
even more warming )
One third
of CMIP6 models
submitted to date
( 10 of 29 models )
exceed the range
of +1.5° to +4.5°C
for ECS
assessed
as likely
(17% to 83% range)
in the prior
IPCC AR5
report.
Higher climate sensitivity
(to CO2) values mean
future climate projections
from these models
will show stronger future
global average warming
than the global warming
previously reported
in AR5.
A more near-term
( transient )
global warming
that arises
after 70 years
of a 1% per year
increase in
atmospheric CO2
concentration,
is referred to as the
transient climate
response ( TCR ).
Climate models
have consistently
overestimated
the future
global warming
by 2x to 3x.
Models, of course,
predict whatever
their owners want
predicted.
An honest modeler
would want his or her
climate model to predict
LESS warming for CMIP6,
so the new prediction
would be more accurate,
when compared with
actual measurements.
Apparently the
climate modelers
don't really care
about accurate
predictions,
and they
have not cared
since the 1960s !
Every climate modeler
on a government payroll,
or taking a government grant,
has been hired to predict
a coming climate crisis.
And they do what
they are paid to do !