Lee, T. C., Knutson,
T. R., Nakaegawa,
T., Ying, M., & Cha, E. J.
2020
Third Assessment
on Impacts
of Climate Change
on Tropical Cyclones
in the Typhoon
Committee Region
–Part I:
Observed Changes,
Detection and Attribution.
Tropical Cyclone
Research and Review.
A new assessment
by the
World Meteorological
Organization (WMO)
of tropical cyclones
and climate change
in the Western North
Pacific Basin (WNP).
The WNP has about
one third of total global
tropical cyclones
and also has about
one third of
global population:
The new WMO assessment
reinforces the conclusions
of all major assessments
of tropical cyclones
(including hurricanes)
-- the detection
and attribution
of trends due
to human-caused
climate change
has not
been achieved.
Study conclusions:
“Observations from the Members did not reveal statistically significant trends in the frequency of landfalling or affecting TCs for China; the vicinity of Hong Kong, China; Macao, China; Japan (TC or above); the Philippines; or the Korean Peninsula.”
“ There is low confidence that any other observed TC changes in the WNP are detectable or attributable to anthropogenic forcing.”
*The paper defines low confidence as its lowest confidence level: “Inconclusive evidence (some published evidence, but: extrapolations, inconsistent findings, poor documentation or data or methods, untested methods), poor physical understanding of mechanisms, disagreement among experts.”