An analysis
of the shortage
of fossil fuel
back up power
capacity in Europe,
based on German
renewables:
SUMMARY:
Rapid deployment
of renewables
across Europe
will increasingly see
neighboring countries
with correlated tight,
or oversupplied,
electricity needs.
Low speed winds
in one nation are likely
to affect neighbors.
All nations
will have night
at the same time.
There's no guarantee that
one nation can "borrow"
electricity from a neighbor.
Current plans
across Europe
include
grossly inadequate
back up power from
conventional natural
gas-fired generator.
The alternative of
long duration electricity
storage with batteries
would be extremely
expensive.
Hoping for much better
batteries, at low prices,
is just wishful thinking.
DETAILS:
Europe is leading
the global push
to decarbonize
electricity production,
primarily with
wind & solar power.
More than 350GW
of new wind and solar
power is projected
to come online across
Western Europe over
the next 10 years.
Large amounts of nuclear,
coal & lignite power are
due to close, at least
40GW by 2023, and
80GW by 2030.
Two case studies
define the
back up power
flexibility required
to support renewable
output swings in 2020,
compared to 2030.
It is asserted the
large variations in
sunshine and wind
can be supported
by electricity storage
alone ( batteries ).
Wishful thinking !
For Germany alone:
Both studies
are based on
actual recently
observed load,
wind & solar data
in Germany
(the 2020 case).
The second study scales up
wind & solar output, based
on the projected capacity
growth required to meet
the latest German 2030
renewable policy targets.
The top blue dashed line
on the chart shows
the level of installed
‘flex" capacity in 2020
( just under 75GW )
to cover low wind & solar
output days in 2020.
For 2030, the lighter
blue shaded area
at the bottom of the chart
shows the incremental
increase in wind & solar
output in 2030.
Despite the large increase
in renewables capacity,
there is only a relatively
small increase in output
on a low wind & solar day.
No amount of solar panels
will produce power at night.
No amount of wind turbines
will produce power with no wind.
A relatively high correlation
of wind patterns across
NW Europe means Germany’s
neighboring markets
may be in a similar position.
There is a more than 30GW
reduction in flexible
backup ppwer capacity
by 2030, creating a 500GWh
energy shortage across the day.