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Wednesday, May 27, 2020

"Experts say ... ” -- Should we listen to them?

The response to COVID-19 
which mainly kills older people
with serious medical problems,
was applied to everyone.

The resulting "instant recession"
will probably cause more damage
than the disease.

Political decisions were justified
by "experts" ... even though there 
were no COVID-19 experts at the 
time, and there are still no experts,
until the disease has become
"history".


In climate science, 
any scientist with a 
non-consensus view is
dismissed as “You’re not 
a climate scientist”, ... 
or ridiculed and character 
attacked, if he or she 
was a climate scientist.

But now even high school 
dropouts are treated as 
experts, such as Ms. Greta 
"thundering" Thunberg.

"Experts" present complex
models instead of stating 
their personal opinion, 
which is exactly what 
their modes will predict.

Actual data are likely to 
be incomplete, biased, 
or cherry picked.

Of course, for the climate
there are no actual data
for the future climate,
so just models 
and predictions
define the 
coming climate
change crisis.

But predictions of such 
a crisis began in the late
1950's, and have been 
100% wrong, so the first 
rule of pretending to be
an expert, is to ignore all
past predictions !

The climate scientists are 
almost all on government 
payrolls, so wrong predictions
will not cost them a job, as 
they might in the private sector !


Warren Buffett believes in 
climate change in his private 
uninformed life, and gave
$31 billion to the Gates 
Foundation in 2006, 
much of which went 
to climate issues. 

But in his professional 
informed life he blows off
climate change:

From 2015{
“Up to now, climate change 
has not produced more frequent 
nor more costly hurricanes 
nor other weather-related 
events covered by insurance. 

As a consequence, 
U.S. super-cat rates 
have fallen steadily 
in recent years, 
which is why we 
have backed away 
from that business. 

If super-cats 
become costlier 
and more frequent, 
the likely – though far 
from certain – effect on 
Berkshire’s 
insurance business 
would be to make it larger 
and more profitable.”

( Note: "cat" = catastrophe )