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Wednesday, May 27, 2020

New Alarmist Hurricane "Study", with the usual deception, based on extrapolating cherry picked short-term trends

A recent study, published 
by government-employed 
and government-funded 
researchers, came to the
usual climate alarmist
conclusion -- there's 
a coming climate crisis !

Which means lifetime
job security for them !

Same conclusion we've 
been hearing since the 
1970s.

And some scientists
even believed it in the 
late 1950s !


The study was reported
with the usual bias by
the leftist-biased  media:

No analysis.

No questions.

Assuming the future
climate can be predicted,
when no one has ever 
been successful at 
doing that before.

Headlines that 
grossly exaggerated, 
or just lied about, 
what the "study" 
actually says !



The study was 
parroted by the 
leftists at the 
New York Times, 
Washington Post, 
The Weather Channel, 
and others. 

A Washington Post 
article actually lied 
about the study":
"The strongest, most dangerous 
hurricanes are now far more likely 
because of climate change, 
study shows.” 

The truth is the study
 does not say that at all.

Not even close.



The study’s authors  
merely examined tropical 
storms that formed 
between 1979 and 2017
-- a 39 year period.

For unknown reasons,
they did not focus on
the number of hurricanes,
or the number of major
hurricanes.

They chose a bizarre
statistic: The chance 
of a given tropical storm 
growing into a major 
hurricane ( category 3 
or higher ). 


They claim after
the first half of the 
39 years studied,
that percentage 
happened to increase
by 8% in each of the 
next two decades.

Meaning  20 years 
of a minor variation 
in how many tropical 
storms turned into 
major hurricanes.

The time period 
is not long enough 
to extrapolate into 
a long-term trend.



Real data over a 
different period,
the 25-year period, 
from 1992 
through 2014, 
shows the frequency 
of hurricanes declined 
significantly, and the 
frequency of major 
hurricanes did 
NOT increase. 

All during a period 
of global warming. 

So why is that 
25-year period 
irrelevant , 
when real data show
no change in the 
frequency of major 
hurricanes since 
the early 1990s ?


Any claim 
of more frequent 
recent hurricanes
requires cherry-picking 
the abnormally quiet 
1980s as the baseline 
for comparison, rather
than the past 30 years. 


The media lap dogs 
bury the fact that the 
authors are reporting 
on the percentage 
of tropical storms 
that later became 
major hurricanes
-- irrelevant data !

Not the raw number 
of major hurricanes 
-- relevant data !



For unknown reasons,
the number of tropical 
storms had been declining 
throughout the time period 
of the study.

But there's no decline
( or increase ) 
in the overall number 
of major hurricanes. 

That's not exactly scary 
climate change news ! 


So the Washington Post
decided to create a scary
fake headline NOT backed
by the study ( aka THEY LIED ): 
“The strongest, most dangerous 
hurricanes are now far more likely ... " 

Even though study authors 
never claimed strong hurricanes 
are more likely !



Climate alarmists tell us 
this is “settled science.” 

Two problems 
with their claim:

Wild guess predictions
of the future climate,
that are always wrong,
are NOT real science.

They are leftist deceptions, 
NOT real science.
  
And the so-called science
behind their beliefs, such as 
this hurricane propaganda, 
is unsettling junk science, 
not "settled" real science !