Ten lessons learned from COVID-19 ... so far

Most of the lessons

learned also apply 

to climate science, or 

science in general.

THE  COVID-19 

GOOD  NEWS:

Over 99.95% 

of Americans 

have NOT died 

from COVID-19 !

Lesson 1:

INTRODUCTION

TO  COVID-19:

The proper name 

of the virus is 

SARS-CoV-2. 

( Severe Acute 

Respiratory 

Syndrome 

COronavirus 2 ). 

The associated 

disease is called 

COVID-19. 

( coronavirus 

disease 2019 ). 

COVID-19 can, 

in mild cases

have no symptoms,

or mild symptoms

that seem like an

ordinary cold --

for perhaps 

4 out of 5 of 

those people

infected.

They feel 

healthy, so

are reluctant 

to be tested 

for COVID-19

at a hospital, or 

anywhere else.

COVID-19 can,

in severe cases, 

produce acute 

inflammation of 

the respiratory 

system.

Those patients 

tend to be old

and have other 

health issues,

as many older 

people do.

It is a hyper-

inflammatory 

response in

the respiratory 

system  that 

actually kills 

people. 

The reproductive rate 

of an epidemic is equal to 

the transmission rate 

( how easily the virus spreads 

from person to person ) 

  times the duration 

( the length of time 

a case remains infective ). 

The reproductive 

rate of COVID-19 

is obviously high,

fueled by carriers

with no obvious

symptoms. 

I will use the term 

"COVID-19" for 

the remainder 

of this article:

Lesson 2:

DON'T  TRUST  CHINA !

The virus was "born"

in Wuhan, China, but

people were allowed

to fly out of Wuhan

to other nations !

They brought the virus

to Italy and Washington 

state. The virus then

moved from Europe

to New York.  

China was dishonest

about the virus, and 

made no attempt 

to stop people from 

coming into Wuhan for 

a giant Chinese New

Year's celebration,

and then flying home.

Lesson 3:

NURSING  HOME  PATIENTS

and other old age institutions,

were most vulnerable.

Florida concentrated

on helping them -- 

while the New York

Governor Cuomo 

forced nursing homes

to accept people 

who tested positive 

for COVID-19, which 

was a disaster.

New York state rule for nirsing homes (NH):

“No resident shall be denied re-admission or admission to the NH solely based on a confirmed or suspected diagnosis of COVID-19. NHs are prohibited from requiring a hospitalized resident who is determined medically stable to be tested for COVID-19 prior to admission or readmission.”

Lesson 4:

THERE  ARE  NO  EXPERTS !

The first COVID-19 cycle 

is still in progress. 

The important 

lesson learned 

is there are 

no real experts, 

until the first

cycle ends, 

and there 

has been time 

to analyze what 

just happened. 

The unanswered 

questions today

exceed those 

with answers:

(A) 

Will there ever 

be a vaccine, and 

how long will it take 

to develop one ?

(B) 

Will there ever 

be a cure, or at least 

a drug(s) that reduces

the death rate, or the

length of recovery ?

(C) 

Will warm, humid 

weather significantly 

slow the COVID-19 

spread ? 

(D) 

How will the stress

of staying at home,

losing a job, and being 

afraid to visit a hospital

for ANY reason, affect the

nation's overall health ?

Lesson 5:

PEOPLE  WANT  TO 

KNOW  THE  FUTURE !

People are much

too interested 

in "knowing"

the future, as if

that was possible. 

They will listen to 

speculation about 

the future, often 

presented with 

great confidence,

as "facts". 

The mass media 

will give people 

speculation and 

predictions that 

turn out to be 

completely 

wrong. 

People have 

too little interest 

in concentrating

on what we 

actually learned 

about the present 

and past. 

This happens a lot

in climate science, 

and is the primary cause 

of climate junk science 

-- decades of wild guesses 

about the future climate, 

that are wrong almost 

100% of the time.

Lesson 6:

SCIENTISTS  RESIST

SAYING  "I  DON'T  KNOW" !

Scientists will attempt 

to "answer" questions, 

when the correct 

answer is:

 "I don't know" 

           or 

"We don't know".

"I don't know" is an

answer that will 

get them little or no 

media coverage

-- a "non-answer" 

that implies they are 

not really an "expert". 

They will present 

results of "models", 

based on unproven

theories, and 

personal opinions,

supported by 

incomplete data,

that will be wrong. 

Policy decisions 

will be based

on those wrong

models.

This happens with 

climate science 

all the time.

Lesson 7:

NO  CONCLUSIONS  ON  

CONTAINMENT  YET !

Without widespread 

"herd immunity", 

or vaccines, the

containment efforts 

( stay at home ) 

do slow the growth 

rate of new cases. 

Wishful thinking 

is that the 

"containment"

will PREVENT 

new infections. 

Negative thinking 

is that "containment"

will only DELAY 

new infections, 

which will spike

after people go

back to work and 

stop their social 

distancing.

Lesson 8:

SARS1 "DISAPPEARED", 

SO  WHY  NOT  SARS2 

(COVID-19)  TOO ?

Harvard Center for 

Communicable Disease 

Dynamics' Marc Lipsitch, 

the Center’s Director, said: 

“SARS1 did not die 

of natural causes. 

It was killed by 

extremely intense 

public health 

interventions in 

mainland Chinese 

cities, Hong Kong, 

Vietnam, Thailand, 

Canada and elsewhere. 

These involved 

isolating cases, 

quarantining their 

contacts, a measure 

of ‘social distancing,’ 

and other intensive 

efforts.”

Lesson 9:

COVID-19 

SPREADS

QUICKLY !

COVID-19 differs 

from the seasonal flu 

in its mode of infection 

( ACE2 binding ), 

a higher fatality rate, 

and a relatively high 

reproductive rate 

       ( R0 ), 

estimated to be 

at least 2.6. 

That RO figure 

represents 

the average 

number of people 

that contract 

the virus 

through contact 

with someone

who already 

has it. 

By comparison, 

the R0 value 

for seasonal flu 

is only about 

half that rate.

For "herd immunity", 

at least 1 - 1/R0 

      ( ~ 62% ) 

of the population 

must become infected, 

and then either die,

or become immune.

Lesson 10:

DEATH  RATES

FOR  INFLUENZA

ARE  OVERSTATED !

Don't assume that

what you "know" 

about the flu

is correct.

Deaths blamed on 

ordinary influenza 

appear to be grossly 

exaggerated. 

In a recent 

very short post, 

I mentioned the 

1968-1969 flu 

in the U.S. 

was claimed to 

have caused 

100,000 deaths,

which seems to be

where COVID-19

is heading. 

Of course 

a round number 

like "100,000" 

is obviously 

a guess.

Yesterday

I decided

to investigate 

death estimates 

for ordinary 

influenza, which 

are presented  

as a very large 

range -- implying

a 'wild guess'. 

Based on "field

experience" with 

actual patients, 

many doctors

believe that the 

estimated deaths,

from ordinary strains

of the flu, have been 

significantly 

overstated.

The next article 

will explain why.