Katherine Hayhoe
is the queen of climate
alarmism in the U.S.
and Canada.
She was a spokesperson
for the ridiculous U.S.
Third National Climate
Assessment.
After that,
she started doing
“Here’s what is going
to happen to you”
climate studies for
various states and cities
-- making lots of money
by scaring people.
Last year Hayhoe delivered
a doomsday forecast to the
Province of Alberta, Canada.
Alberta is home to the
Friends of Science Society
(FOSS), one of Canada’s
top skeptical organizations.
FOSS produced a 77 page
report shredding Hayhoe’s
so-called study in detail.
In the same vein,
Hayhoe’s report
is arrogantly titled
“Alberta’s Climate Future” ,
so the FOSS takedown is
“Facts versus Fortune Telling”.
There are lots of data issues.
The Hayhoe report
uses truncated trends.
The FOSS rebuttal does
longer term analyses.
The Hayhoe report
is based on “downscaling”
of too hot climate models.
This means taking huge.
crude regional results,
and interpolating
questionable
local details.
Hayhoe bills her
self as an
“atmospheric scientist”
but her Ph.D. work
was on downscaling,
which is computer science.
She is now in a university
Political Science department
-- her work is certainly political.
Hayhoe ignores the fact
that different global
climate models give wildly
different regional projections.
When the first U.S. National
Climate Assessment came out,
it used two major climate models,
one Canadian, and the British Hadley
model.
For the North Central region
one projected a +160% increase
in rainfall, while the other gave
a -60% decrease.
Either a swamp,
or a desert !
Here is the FOSS
Friends of Science
condensed summary:
“This review shows how Hayhoe & Stoner misinform, how they did not use all available information, how they cultivate alarm regarding Black Swan events, while ignoring counter trends and evidence of cycles. Their report style demonstrates a false, absolute certainty, of knowledge, where due qualification of assumptions and other influences can alter results as reported. Facts and evidence, not fortune-telling, should guide public policy on climate and energy.”
Here are some
more specific
FOSS findings:
“Hayhoe & Stoner’s “Alberta’s Climate Future” report fails in a number of ways. The report ignores climate cycles and instead forecasts continuing linear temperature increases based on global climate models, even when local trends may be quite different. The report only addresses trends from 1950, ignoring much warmer conditions in the past in the Province.”
“More concerning, “Alberta’s Climate Future” is based on the use of unreasonably unlikely scenarios, such as Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. This computer simulation is a very extreme projection of the future where the world goes back to using more than five times the coal than is used today. Most mainstream scientists believe the RCP8.5 scenario to be a critically flawed benchmark for forecasting future climate.”
“Hayhoe & Stoner make bold and unverified statements such as: “extreme high and low temperatures are projected to increase exponentially” without justification. The report creates alarm with discredited references to natural “Black Swan” events, ascribing human caused climate change as the driver of floods and fires.”
The Hayhoe report
is very typical of
climate alarmism —
computer model based,
using only selected data,
and then presenting
speculative scary
conclusions as facts.