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Friday, June 12, 2020

Coal may be struggling in the U.S., but it’s still king worldwide

SOUTHEAST  ASIA
 COAL  OVERVIEW:
The IEA expects 
coal demand 
in Southeast Asia 
will grow by more 
than 5% per year 
through 2024, 
led by Indonesia 
and Vietnam. 

The IEA expects 
generation from 
coal power plants 
in Asia will exceed 
the drop in coal-fired 
generation in the U.S. 
and Europe, so that 
coal remains the world’s 
largest generation fuel 
over the next five years.



CHINA  DETAILS:
China’s reliance on coal 
helped it become the world’s 
second-largest economy, 
pulling one billion people 
out of poverty. 

Official economic data 
claimed 65% of the annual 
growth in 2019 energy 
consumption came from 
fossil fuels, with coal 
accounting for 57.7% 
of China’s energy use. 

Coal plants, which burn 
about 54% of all coal 
used in the country, 
provide 52% of all
generating capacity 
and 67% of electricity 
output.

China’s coal electricity 
generation sector is at
overcapacity, with an 
average utilization rate 
below 50%. 

Yet China added 
about 40 GW of 
coal-fired power 
capacity in 2019
—a 4% increase.

And is still building 
new supercritical 
coal-fired generators 
with 100 GW under 
construction, which 
would raise current 
coal capacity 
by nearly 10%.

China’s coal power 
overcapacity dates back 
to the 12th Five-Year Plan,
created in the early 2010s,
 in response to the global 
financial crisis.

It was part of
the largest economic 
stimulus program 
in its history,
and it targeted 
a huge expansion 
in coal mining 
and coal-fired 
power generation.

About 210 projects,
with a capacity 
of 169 GW, 
were rubber-stamped 
in less than a year 
by the provinces. 

This surge 
of new projects 
came as demand for 
coal-fired electricity 
declined from 
2013 to 2015, 
leading the central 
government to 
suspend already 
permitted projects.


Ahead of China’s release 
of its 14th Five-Year Plan 
later this year, stakeholders
are lobbying for targets
that would allow hundreds 
of new coal-fired power 
plants to be built. 

The China Electricity Council 
argued that 
coal power capacity 
should reach 
1,300 GW by 2030, 
up from 1,050 GW today, 
based on projections for 
annual electricity demand 
and the need for capacity 
to meet peak loads. 

For comparison, 
the U.S. had 227 GW 
of coal generating 
capacity in February
2020. 

The 1,300 GW 
of capacity 
for China in 2030 
would imply the addition 
of more than 300 GW 
of new supercritical 
coal-fired capacity 
this decade, due to 
the retirement of older, 
polluting and inefficient 
plants. 

With 100 GW of new coal 
power under construction, 
another 200 GW of capacity 
would need permits 
and financing.



INDIA  DETAILS:
India’s per-capita power 
consumption is still low.

Power generation from 
renewables is expected 
to increase fourfold 
between 2018 and 2024.

But the IEA expects 
India’s coal power 
generation to increase
by 4.6% per year 
through 2024.

And for India’s 
coal demand to grow 
by more than that
of any other country, 
in absolute terms, 
over the five-year 
forecast period.