SOUTHEAST ASIA
COAL OVERVIEW:
The IEA expects
coal demand
in Southeast Asia
will grow by more
than 5% per year
through 2024,
led by Indonesia
and Vietnam.
The IEA expects
generation from
coal power plants
in Asia will exceed
the drop in coal-fired
generation in the U.S.
and Europe, so that
coal remains the world’s
largest generation fuel
over the next five years.
CHINA DETAILS:
China’s reliance on coal
helped it become the world’s
second-largest economy,
pulling one billion people
out of poverty.
Official economic data
claimed 65% of the annual
growth in 2019 energy
consumption came from
fossil fuels, with coal
accounting for 57.7%
of China’s energy use.
Coal plants, which burn
about 54% of all coal
used in the country,
provide 52% of all
generating capacity
and 67% of electricity
output.
China’s coal electricity
generation sector is at
overcapacity, with an
average utilization rate
below 50%.
Yet China added
about 40 GW of
coal-fired power
capacity in 2019
—a 4% increase.
And is still building
new supercritical
coal-fired generators
with 100 GW under
construction, which
would raise current
coal capacity
by nearly 10%.
China’s coal power
overcapacity dates back
to the 12th Five-Year Plan,
created in the early 2010s,
in response to the global
financial crisis.
It was part of
the largest economic
stimulus program
in its history,
and it targeted
a huge expansion
in coal mining
and coal-fired
power generation.
About 210 projects,
with a capacity
of 169 GW,
were rubber-stamped
in less than a year
by the provinces.
This surge
of new projects
came as demand for
coal-fired electricity
declined from
2013 to 2015,
leading the central
government to
suspend already
permitted projects.
Ahead of China’s release
of its 14th Five-Year Plan
later this year, stakeholders
are lobbying for targets
that would allow hundreds
of new coal-fired power
plants to be built.
The China Electricity Council
argued that
coal power capacity
should reach
1,300 GW by 2030,
up from 1,050 GW today,
based on projections for
annual electricity demand
and the need for capacity
to meet peak loads.
For comparison,
the U.S. had 227 GW
of coal generating
capacity in February
2020.
The 1,300 GW
of capacity
for China in 2030
would imply the addition
of more than 300 GW
of new supercritical
coal-fired capacity
this decade, due to
the retirement of older,
polluting and inefficient
plants.
With 100 GW of new coal
power under construction,
another 200 GW of capacity
would need permits
and financing.
INDIA DETAILS:
India’s per-capita power
consumption is still low.
Power generation from
renewables is expected
to increase fourfold
between 2018 and 2024.
But the IEA expects
India’s coal power
generation to increase
by 4.6% per year
through 2024.
And for India’s
coal demand to grow
by more than that
of any other country,
in absolute terms,
over the five-year
forecast period.